From: carl@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU (Carl J Lydick)
FIrst of all, it's not a "dream registry," it's a prediction registry. As to
how it's run, it's simply a mailing list, with archives. Here's the message
anybody who subscribes receives:
PACKAGE: PREDICTION_REGISTRY
PURPOSE AND RESTRICTIONS
In the interest of allowing those who claim to have precognitive powers to
demonstrate them (and to allow anybody who thinks he's good at predicting
future events through non-paranormal means to establish a track record
documented by a disinterested party), I've set up a mailing list called
PREDICTION_REGISTRY on SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU. This registry is intended to be a
repository for predictions made by anybody, using any means they desire.
Access to the list (both for posting predictions and subscription) is open to
anybody who can manage to send mail to SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU ([131.215.67.165])
(ESnet/NSI node SOL1 [5.950]) with a usable return address in the mail header,
or who can send me mail personally including a usable mailing address.
I ask only that any predictions sent to the registry meet the following three
criteria:
1) The events predicted must be objectively verifiable by anybody willing
to spend the time and effort required to do so;
2) The events predicted must not be under the control (either direct or
indirect) of the person making the prediction. In this requirement,
I'll make the exception that if the person making the prediction can
control the predicted event only by paranormal means, that's OK, too.;
and
3) That the predictions be non-trivial. E.g., I don't want to see
anything like "I predict that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow
morning" showing up on the list.
For the time being, subscription is open to anybody. If the number of
subscribers and predictions gets large enough that traffic has a significant
effect on the performance of SOL1, I will, of course, have to restrict
subscriptions. However, there is an associated file server that will allow
anybody to retrieve the archives of the list. If, after restricting
subscription to the list, the traffic just from posted predictions is large
enough to adversely affect SOL1, I'll have to discontinue the service
entirely. Personally, I doubt that either of the above two scenarios will
occur (hmm, maybe I should have posted that prediction to the list :-).
SUBSCRIBING
To subscribe to the list, send a message whose body consists of the single
word "subscribe" to PREDICTION_REGISTRY-REQUEST@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU (or, for
those of you on ESnet/NSI, SOL1::PREDICTION_REGISTRY-REQUEST). If you don't
get a confirmation of your subscription request within a few hours, send a
message (including your e-mail address) asking me to subscribe you manually to
CARL@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU (SOL1::CARL).
REGISTERING PREDICTIONS
To register a prediction, mail it to PREDICTION_REGISTRY@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU
(SOL1::PREDICTION_REGISTRY).
RETRIEVING THE ARCHIVES
For information on retrieving the archives of the list, mail a message whose
body consists of the single word "HELP" to FILESERV@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU
(SOL1::FILESERV). The file server will mail responses only between 5 pm and 9
am PST (we're in the astronomy business here, so we don't believe in using
daylight savings time :-).
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS
To the best of my knowledge, this registry obviates several of the arguments
used by PSI advocates to explain why nobody has convincingly demonstrated PSI
talents, viz:
1) "The ability is erratic. I can't use it on demand." Since the
registry is available 24 hours a day, every day, whenever a psychic
has a precognitive experience, he can post to the list.
2) "The presence of un- or disbelievers inhibits the ability." Since we
don't know who might be about to make a prediction, or when, and none
of us can spend 24 hours a day actively doubting PSI talents, and it's
unlikely that all of us together can effectively do so (and if we CAN,
that means that no PSI talents should EVER be demonstrated), the
alleged inhibition shouldn't take place.
3) "The investigator uses only the frauds; he never gives the REAL
psychics a chance." Since the registry is open to everybody (both for
posting of predictions and for retrieving the predictions), this claim
won't work either.
4) "Somebody DID display a psychic ability, but the investigator refused
to believe it and now claims it never happened." Again, given the
glaznost inherent in the list, this claim won't work.
I also think there's no effective way (short of getting access to a privileged
account on SOL1, and even that won't work as long as I don't have to go to
archives-only distribution of the predictions) to cheat. The only mechanism
for cheating I can think of would be for somebody to post many predictions,
changing the email address from which he's posting every time the hit rate of
the predictions gets too low for the old email address. If my personal
opinion as to the probability of the existence of PSI is correct, this
strategy won't do the cheater much good. If somebody can string together a
decent number of valid predictions even using this strategy, I will (as will
most skeptics) have to revise my opinions about PSI. Of course, there's
always the possibility that somebody might be able to make good predictions
without using PSI, but then claims he did it psychically, but I doubt this
will happen.
I welcome any ideas as to what other claims believers in PSI might make as to
how this setup will prevent them from demonstrating psychic abilities, or as
to other ways that people might be able to cheat. Of course, recommendations
as to solutions to any such problems are also welcome. Rather than posting
such suggestions to the list, post them to me (CARL@SOL1.GPS.CALTECH.EDU or
SOL1::CARL) personally.
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