TL: CLIMATE TIME BOMB (SUMMARY OF FINDINGS) SO: GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL (GP) DT: 1994 This report is an executive summary from a larger report available from Greenpeace International or Greenpeace national offices. Published by Greenpeace International, Keizersgracht 176, 1016 DW Amsterdam, Netherlands, June 1994 ISBN Number: 90-73361-04-4 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TEMPERATURE FIRE LESS SNOW THE OCEAN BLEACHING CORALS DISEASE MORE PESTS WINDSTORMS INSURANCE DROUGHT FLOODS RISING SEAS CONCLUSION 1994 UPDATE INTRODUCTION Climate change is potentially the biggest threat to thefuture of both the human race and the environment.] The US Vice President, Al Gore, has written a book based on the above premise. The UK Government has sponsored a television advertisement warning of 'catastrophic' impacts if nothing is done. And more than 160 governments have signed the Framework Convention On Climate Change, which commits them to stabilise carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that pose no danger. A major driving force behind all this concern is an assessment by the world's best climate scientists. In 1988, the United Nations established a scientific group - the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -to investigate the science of human induced climate change in order to advise world leaders on how to deal with the problem. The IPCC released its first report in May 1990. The panel concluded that human-induced climate change is real and that levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing. The main contributor is carbon dioxide from burning coal, oil and gas. The report noted that the planet faces probable temperature increases unprecedented in human history, but stated that the first signs of climate change might not emerge for at least a decade. Greenpeace has been monitoring scientific and news reports of major extreme weather events and natural climate-related disasters since the IPCC's first warning in 1990. Greenpeace believes the only conclusion that can be drawn from this 'catalogue of disasters' is that global warming is now detectable and the first impacts of human-induced climate change are in fact already being felt. Climate change means much more than higher temperatures. It will mean an increase in average global temperatures, but some regions will warm more than others, and some may in fact cool. Impacts will vary considerably. Changing rainfall patterns will bring more droughts to some regions but more floods to others. Many plants and animals will face extinction. Water supplies will become less reliable in some regions, particularly in those already vulnerable. There may be more hurricanes in the tropics, and more windstorms in Europe. Entire island countries in the Pacific may disappear under the sea. Yet if action is taken, unmitigated disaster is not inevitable. We have international political agreement on the need to protect the climate - the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Now we must set targets and timetables within that convention to reduce emissions. Solutions to global warming do exist - the clean energy alternatives and the energy saving processes only require political will to be implemented. We can save the climate - but the longer we delay action, the more extreme that action will have to be. TEMPERATURE The probability that the temperature increase of the last century has not been influenced by the greenhouse effect is less than one per cent - R. Tol and A de Vos, Free Univ. of Amsterdam, April 199 Global average temperatures have risen by between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees Celsius (0.5 to 1 degrees Fahrenheit) in the 140 years since records began. Anyone prepared to argue that the greenhouse gases already emitted by humans have had no noticeable heat-trapping effect has to be prepared to explain the following facts: * The eight hottest years on record have all occurred since 1980. * 1990 was the hottest year since records began. * 1991 was the third hottest year, despite the cooling effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption. * 1993 was the sixth hottest year this century. * Into its sixth year of significantly warmer winters, in 1993 Moscow experienced January temperatures 4.5 degrees C above normal. "It is a trend ... I am afraid to say it is because of the so- called greenhouse gases... I think this warming will continue'. (Alexander Vassileyev, Russian Hydrometeorological Centre) * Winter took on new meaning in New Zealand after the third warmest July on record in 1990, and the third warmest June on record in 1993. A 1991 government report said New Zealand had warmed by 0.5 degrees Celsius since 1950. * Washington DC had its warmest year on record in 1990. The above average temperatures continued into 1991. The US winter of 1991- 92 was the hottest on record. * Permafrost in Canada was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer in 1992 than in the early 1970s; spring temperatures were warmer and the ice season ended earlier. FIRE Reinsurance Giant Swiss Re's special Greenhouse Effect Project Team concluded in a 1992 study that less rain and more drought in a global warming world would bring an increased risk of bush and forest fires Since the mid 1980s an unprecedented number of intense fires have destroyed forests and homes across most continents: Mongolia, May 1990: * Gale force winds push fires across 600,000 hectares of boreal forest for the third year running. Indonesia, October 1991: * Drought-induced fires, the worst in Indonesia's history, blanket Singapore, the Malay Peninsula and the South China Sea with smoke. California, October 1991: * At the height of a drought, a devastating fire sweeps through thousands of hectares of forest and homes near Oakland. Swiss Re investigators call it "the fire of the future". Siberia, August 1992: * During the worst drought in 100 years, 800,000 hectares of southern Siberian forest and marshland are devastated by wildfires. Zimbabwe, September 1992: * Drought affected forests are destroyed by fierce fires. Canada, 1992: * Research shows that increased temperatures were the biggest contributor to recent forest fires in the Northwest Territories. California, November 1993: * California is again struck by fires, and a damage bill of more than one billion dollars. Australia, January 1994: * Sydney is ringed by fire as unusually prolonged hot, dry and windy conditions fuel more than 150 firestorms across the state of New South Wales. LESS SNOW 1990: * Mountain glaciers are retreating almost everywhere in the world. Ice cores in glaciers show that temperatures between 1937 and 1987 were higher than for any 50 year period for 12,000 years. "...so far the length reduction of mountain glaciers still remains the most readily detectable, unequivocal proof from cold regions that fast and worldwide secular climatic change is taking place" (Dr Wilfried Haeberli, Swiss Polytechnic, 1990). 1990: * NASA scientists speculate that instability in the fast flowing ice streams on the Antarctic Ross Ice Shelf may indicate instability on the Western Antarctic ice sheet. If all or part of the ice sheet collapsed, sea level rises would be far more catastrophic than that already predicted by the IPCC. December 1990: * Polar bears are stranded on sub-Arctic Wrangel Island when the sea ice disappears with 2000 kilometres of the island. With none of their usual natural food supply available, the bears are forced to hunt walrus, also stranded. July 1991: * NASA reports that ice extent in the Arctic Ocean declined by about 2% between 1978 and 1987. 1992: * A major study finds that climate changes in the Arctic will be the most severe anywhere, and suggests that changes in Arctic temperatures would encourage further global warming by inducing the release of more greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, from sub-Arctic tundra soils. February 1993: * Measurements taken in the Alaskan Arctic show that the tundra has turned from a sink to a source for carbon dioxide. December 1993: * Severe, unseasonal storms hit Alaska. The US National Weather Service blames a southward displacement of the jet stream (a regional wind pattern) caused by abnormal warming. THE OCEAN Impacts on the global oceans will include changes in the heat balance, shifts in ocean circulation which will affect the capacity of the ocean to absorb heat and CO2, and changes in upwelling zones associated with fisheries. - IPCC 199 The oceans are as important in the Earth's climatic systems as the atmosphere, because the oceans absorb atmospheric heat and carbon dioxide. Major uncertainties remain about how much heat is taken down to deeper water by currents (tending to delay overall warming), and how much less effective the oceans will be at acting as a 'sink' for carbon dioxide (tending to enhance the greenhouse effect). Worrying indicators: August 1990: * British scientists warn that changes in ocean circulation could cause "enormous and rapid" changes in the world's climate. Oxford University's Dr Peter Killworth suggests there is evidence from ice core data that oceans can "flip" to completely different states within 50 years or less. During this period, the oceans lose heat at a dramatic rate. An enhanced greenhouse effect could trigger such a switch, a prospect Killworth describes as "terrifying". October 1990: * French scientists report that water deep in the Mediterranean is 0.12 degrees Celsius warmer than in 1959 leading "to the possibility that the deep water temperature trend may be the result of greenhouse gas-induced local warming" (J.P. Bethoux and colleagues, Paris University, October 1990). July 1992: * Ocean temperatures off the coast of California show significant warming in recent years. Temperatures in the upper 100 metres have risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius in the last 42 years. September 1992: * Sea surface temperatures across a large area of the western Pacific, south of Japan, have increased by about 0.7 degrees Celsius in recent years. In reporting the increase, the Japanese Maritime Safety Agency says: "Global warming phenomena have been proved by the change in water temperature." BLEACHING CORALS We may be witnessing an early warning of global changes which should represent a serious concern for mankind. - Dr. T.Goreauand colleagues, Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory, Jamaica, testifying to US Senate Committee on Caribbean coral bleaching, October 199 Coral reef systems protect coastal areas, in some cases whole islands, from the destructive power of the sea and wind, and provide a haven for marine life. Dying corals expose these coastal areas to severe sociol-economic effects. Whilst corals are stressed by pollution and sedimentation, they have indicated their particular sensitivity to sudden sea temperature changes. They thrive in waters up to 28 degrees Celsius, but if exposed to temperatures just 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher - even for two or three days - the algae are expelled from the coral. In 1991, leading coral reef expert John Ogden, Director of Florida Institute of Oceanography, suggested that nearly every reef system in the world was suffering from coral bleaching, along the coasts of more than 20 countries, including Australia, China, Japan, Panama, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, Kenya, the Red Sea states, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the Bahamas. Corals will inevitably be among the first organisms to show the consequences of a sustained increase in sea surface temperatures, because of the fragile temperature dependence of the tiny algae, called zooxanthellae, which live in the coral's cells. The coral's colour and most of its food come from these algae, so without them the coral cannot grow. Reefs already under assault: 1990: * US coral experts report unprecedented coral bleaching in the Caribbean, primarily associated with warmer than usual sea temperatures. 1991: * Mass bleaching and a 50 per cent mortality rate are reported on corals in the Straits of Hormuz, Arabian Gulf. 1991: * 85 per cent bleaching is reported on French Polynesian reefs. 1991: * Coral reefs in Thailand are reported to be losing colour down to 8 metres. Water in the region has been 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual. 1994: * A severe coral bleaching episode is reported in the Tahiti lagoon, possible linked to warmer-than-normal water. Local experts predict 100 per cent bleaching by the end of May 1994. DISEASE Major health impacts are possible, especially in largeurban areas, owing to changes in availability of water and food andincreased health problems due to heat stress and spreading of infections. - IPCC 199 Our health is threatened by climate change. Malaria, asthma, encephalitis, tuberculosis, leprosy, dengue fever and measles are all expected to become more common. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) there are already 110 million cases of malaria and up to 2 million deaths from it worldwide each year. Increases in temperatures are creating ideal mosquito-breeding conditions in new regions, including the USA, Australia, UK, Bangladesh, China and Egypt. November 1991: * Australian health officials found a four-fold increase in malaria cases since 1970. They believe hotter summer temperatures may be contributing to the increase. July 1991: * Asian tiger mosquitoes, transmitter of the fatal brain disease eastern equine encephalitis, are reported in 24 US states. Researchers suggest that they may spread rapidly in a global warming world. December 1992: * A UK government report suggests that malaria and other tropical diseases, and even bubonic plague, could be reintroduced to the UK as a result of global warming. There has been a substantial increase in brown rat populations, which spread diseases, after recent mild winters. MORE PESTS ...climate change may benefit ecologicalconditions for insect growth and abundance which is likely to have a negative effect on crop, livestock and forest production in some areas. - IPCC, 199 Moths, beetles and spiders might seem like innocuous household pests, but in a global warming world they have the potential to wreak havoc on crops, forests and human health. We are already seeing signs of pest population explosions: November 1991: * A plague of whiteflies attacks southern California's winter fruit and vegetable crops, prompting the declaration of a state of emergency. 1992: * The succession of warmer-than-usual summers encourages a proliferation of spiders, cat fleas, head lice and other insects. December 1992: * Intense drought-breaking rain across eastern Australia induces the worst locust plague and maggot swarms in sheep flocks in recent years. 1992-1993: * Three successive warm summers encourages the worst infestation of bark beetles in living memory, devastating thousands of hectares of Austrian and German forests. Voracious populations of alien moths denude forests and croplands in southern England, Scotland, and central Europe. July 1993: * Mild winters and drought are blamed for the first locust plague in 60 years in Hungary. WINDSTORMS Coupled with the storms of 1987 and1990, there is evidence that we seem to be entering an era of strong storms,which might be associated with global warming Dr. J.Gould, UK Institute ofOceanographic Sciences, Jan. 199 Many climate scientists expect that global warming will increase the intensity and severity of storms in both mid latitude and tropical regions. Unusually intense cyclones have hit the Caribbean and the pacific in recent years: October 1990: * Hurricane Trudy is one of the strongest eastern Pacific hurricanes ever. September 1991: * Typhoon Mireille is Japan's strongest typhoon in 30 years. "More disasters like Mireille ...could affect the industry's very existence" says an official of the Marine and Fire Insurance Association of Japan. December 1991: * The storm of the century, Cyclone Val, rips through Western Samoa, with four days of winds gusting to 240 kilometres an hour. Water and electricity supplies are cut for more than five weeks. The country had barely recovered from February 1990's Cyclone Ofa. The first visitors after the cyclone say the island looks as if it has been sandblasted. August 1992: * Hurricane Andrew devastates the Caribbean and southeast coastal US, killing 23 people and leaving 250,000 homeless. The most expensive US disaster ever, it causes $30 billion damage, much of it uninsured. August 1992: * While mainland USA recovers from Andrew, Cyclone Omar slams into another US territory, Guam. It is the strongest cyclone to hit the island in 16 years. September 1992: * Cyclone Iniki becomes the tenth billion dollar windstorm in five years and the strongest cyclone to strike Hawaii since records began 50 years ago. January 1993 * Cyclone Kina is Fiji's second cyclone in four weeks, and the worst for 20 years. September 1993: * Typhoon Yancy, the thirteenth in the 1993 season, is the most powerful storm to hit Japan in 50 years. Freak windstorms of enormous destructiveness have also hit mid- latitude areas. April 1991: * The record heat in the US is blamed for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods. December 1992: * "The Great Nor'easter of 1992" wreaks havoc along more than 900 kilometres of US coastline and floods the New York Subway. January 1993: * The barometric pressure around Shetland (UK) drops to its lowest recorded level, of 915 millibars. The oil tanker Braer breaks up in the resultant wild storm, causing one of the worlds' biggest oil spills. March 1993: * The 'US storm of the century' causes destruction from Canada to Cuba. Total insured losses reach $1.6 billion. December 1993: * Hurricane-force storms return to Britain causing worst flooding in 40 years. INSURANCE There are now fears that the high incidence of catastrophes will be a permanent feature of the climatic landscape. - T.Gray, City View, March 1993 In the past five years, there have been fifteen 'billion dollar' climate-related natural disasters, several major reinsurance companies have gone out of business, and Lloyds of London - that most respectable and British of institutions - is facing ruin. The warning from usually conservative insurance company executives have become more and more dire: "Even a cursory glance at some of the basic principles of reinsurance reveals the concern that ought to exist about the greenhouse effect scenario." (J.C. Doornkamp, UK Reinsurance Offices Association, 1990) "The fact is that in recent years natural disasters whose return period used to be regarded as at least 100 years have transpired every year in various places in the world. It seems difficult to believe that these incidents are merely accidental. It would be sensible to say that, whatever the reason may be, natural disasters are undergoing qualitative changes." (Shiro Horichi, Executive Vice President, Tokio Marine and Fire, July 1993) Insurers are responding by raising premiums to crippling levels or by removing cover altogether. Since 1990, a number of major re-insurance companies have closed down in the wake of natural disasters. At least two others have stopped insuring against natural disasters: 1991: * The chief executive of FAI Australia says that natural disasters were a major reason behind it's $191 million underwriting loss. He warns that some parts of Australia are 'bordering on the uninsurable.' 1992: * Leading Barbadian insurer General and Marine warns of a crisis in the Caribbean as policyholders reduce or cancel coverage in response to dramatic cost increases. 1992: * In the aftermath of cyclones Ofa and Val, Western Samoa's only general insurance company, the National Pacific, announces that it will remove all cover once existing cover runs out. 1993: * Nine insurance companies are driven out of business by Hurricane Andrew and Cyclone Iniki. The two storms had devastated the industry with a $16.5 billion damages bill. 1994: * Franklin Nutter, President of the Reinsurance Association of America, says, 'The insurance business is first in line to be affected by climate change....it could bankrupt the industry.' DROUGHT Recent studies have reinforced concern that drought is the area in which climate change poses the greatest risk for agriculture. - IPCC, 1992 A recent United Nations report suggested that global warming would reduce global food production, increase prices and cause new uncertainties about food supplies. Significant declines in grain yields are forecast for Africa, tropical Latin America and much of India and southeast Asia. Reduced yields are also projected for the USA, Canada, the Middle East, and southern Europe. The warning signs are already here: 1990: * World grain reserves drop to just 60 days after poor harvests in the drought-affected US in 1988 and in India in 1987. California, 1990: * The five-year drought is the longest this century. By 1992, agricultural production is crippled and insect plagues proliferate. Voters rate water second only to crime as their main concern. Peru 1990: * The worst drought this century leads to food and water shortages. UK, 1991: * While total UK rainfall remains normal, the most severe drought since the turn of the century is withering southern England. Europe, 1992: * The fourth year of drought induces emergency water conservation measures in France and Spain (May). Denmark reports its worst drought on record, expected to cause crop losses of $1billion (July). The worst drought in more than 150 years causes insect plagues and huge crop losses in Austria (August). Greek religious leaders ask the nation to pray for rain (November). Southern Africa, 1992: * Drought stricken cattle-graziers fight for access to game reserves. Zambia hydro-dams dry up. Peru, 1992: * The worst drought on record threatens the survival of Peru's 67,000 alpacas, the major source of income for most mountain villages. Brazil, 1993: * After four years of drought, starving peasants in northeast Brazil loot shops for food. Southern Africa, 1993: * The drought now covering Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana and South Africa, is declared the worst in living memory. Australia, 1993: * Northeast Queensland reports the worst drought this century. Officials say the consequences of the drought will be 'severe and permanent.' Many of our recent severe droughts (and floods) have been linked with a unusually prolonged El Nino event, a periodic climatic pattern which generally lasts 12 to 18 months and brings warm conditions to the eastern Pacific. Some climate scientists believe that El Nino events will become more intense and more frequent in a global warming world. FLOODS More and more abundant rainfalls of shorter duration are expected and, therefore, also more inundations. - Swiss Re 1992 In a world of climate chaos we will have to get used to seemingly contradictory events happening at the same time. Scientists predict more droughts and more short periods of intense rainfall. June-August 1990: * Record monsoon rains in Burma, Bangladesh and India cause severe flooding and affect more than three million people. February 1991: * The worst flooding this century hits southern Iran. June 1991: * 100,000 people are left homeless in Bombay after the worst June Monsoonal floods in recorded history. June 1991: * A freak storm brings snow, rain and hurricane force winds to the desert region of Chile and turns some of the driest areas in the world into flood plains. June 1991: * The worst floods this century leave 10 million people homeless along the Yangtze river, China. August 1991: * The worst flooding in 50 years hits Burma. August 1991: * The Danube reaches record levels in Vienna, Austria. September 1991: * The southeast Asian monsoonal floods are the worst on record. Cambodia suffers the most serious inundation in living memory'. December 1991: * The longest sustained rainfall in 40 years causes massive flooding in Egypt and Israel. July 1992: * The US 'flood of the century' ravages nine states along the Mississippi river. July 1992: * The worst flood in 50 years in China's Fujian province affects over nine million people. September 1993: * Renewed flooding occurs in the US midwest - the ground is too saturated to absorb more rain. September 1993: * Massive flooding in the Swiss, French and Italian Alps triggers severe mudslides and submerges towns. November 1993: * There are more floods in the Swiss Alps as Lake Maggiore reaches its second-highest level this century. November 1993: * Still more flooding occurs in the US midwest. 'I've been here about 52 years and this is the worst I've ever seen,' says police chief Bill Holloway. 'If current trends in emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gases continue, causing modest changes in climate, the frequency and magnitude of floods [in the Mississippi Valley] could increase' (James Knox, University of Wisconsin, November 1993). December 1993: * The worst flooding in 60 to 100 years hits northern Europe. Scores of towns in Germany, France and Belgium are evacuated. A state of emergency is declared in the Netherlands. December 1993: * A state of emergency is declared in Kaikoura as large parts of southern New Zealand are flooded. RISING SEAS The greenhouse effect and sea level rise threaten the very heart of our existence - B.Paeniu, PM of Tuvalu at the World Climate Conference, Nov. 1990 The best-guess forecast of the IPCC for sea level rise is a global average of 3-10 millimetres per year. As more than 70 per cent of the world's population live on coastal plains, the potential for massive personal, economic and physical dislocation becomes clear - even if sea levels rise only marginally. Mangroves (which act as crucial nursery, feeding and spawning grounds for coastal fisheries) corals (which protect coastal areas from wind and wave erosion) and coastlines will be all threatened by even small rises in sea levels. And while they have done the least to cause climate change, Pacific, Caribbean and Indian Ocean island nations are the most likely to suffer. Worrying indicators of rising seas: United Kingdom, 1990: * A secret government report reveals that parts of the UK will have to be abandoned in the event of sea level rises. The report describes the situation as a "tidal time bomb". 1992: The government is advised to begin a "managed retreat" from the coastline rather than spend millions on sea walls. The government concedes that huge areas of farmland in eastern England will have to be abandoned to the sea. Thailand, 1992: * A UNEP report suggests that thousands of hectares of productive agricultural land in Thailand will be threatened by the sea level rise projected by the IPCC. Mozambique, 1993: * The sea encroaches onto roads and homes in Beira, Mozambique's second largest city. The city centre, currently two kilometres from the coast, is already showing signs of erosion. Beira is one of the ten cities in the world most threatened by sea level rise. Guyana, 1993: * A national disaster is declared as heavy rains and unusually high tides combine to breach a 60-metre section of the sea defence system, leaving a village and farmlands under 25 centimetres of water. CONCLUSION Our planet is already warming at an increasing rate. The first signs of climate change are already measurable and noticeable. Hence, there is no reason any more to delay urgently required actions - Enquete Commission, March 199 This Greenpeace catalogue of climatic experiences in the period since the release of the first IPCC report provides serious cause for alarm. The first signs of human-induced climate change are emerging. But does it have to be like this? Clearly if we want to stop global warming we must do something to slow emissions of greenhouse gases. And we do have the capacity - the power- to change. But governments must provide the political leadership - at local, national and international levels. They must promote energy efficiency and conservation measures, and ensure the development and speedy introduction of new clean energy technologies. We must use less energy and be more efficient in our use. We need stringent efficiency standards for appliances, homes and offices, industrial processes and vehicles. We need more renewable energy. We need more railways and public transport. At present governments and financial institutions like the World Bank continue to favour policies which will only intensify the problem of climate change. They do so with the knowledge that there are alternative options available which can reduce our addictive reliance on fossil fuels and which would cut our emissions of greenhouse gases. New power stations are being built when efficiency programmes would generate more jobs and save money. New buildings waste vast amounts of energy instead of incorporating the latest efficient technologies. New renewable energy technologies are being ignored, the victims of a continued dominance of oil, coal and gas. New roads are constructed when investment in railways and mass transport systems are far less polluting. Greenpeace believes that a future without fossil fuels is essential to preserve the environment from the serious risk of climate change. We know real alternatives exist. If we really want to stop global warming we can! 1994 UPDATE Greenpeace has produced the first-ever catalogue of recent record climatic events around the world. It covers the period since the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) First Assessment report in 1990. The Climate Time Bomb catalogue, including this Update, records droughts, floods, record storms and other climate related extreme events from 1990 to early 1995. Whilst no single extreme event, nor sequence of events, can be attributed to the greenhouse effect, Greenpeace believes that the totality of the planet's climatic experience since 1990, indicates that the first footprint of climate change as a result of the human-enhanced greenhouse effect is now becoming clear. We are not alone in this view. The respected Enquete Commission (the German Bundestag's advisory body on climate change) stated in its 1992 report that 'Our planet is already warming at an increasing rate. The first signs of climate change are already measurable and noticeable. Hence there is no reason any more to delay urgently required actions.' On the scientific front, in 1994, the IPCC concluded that stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be attained only with global human-induced emissions that eventually drop to substantially below 1990 levels. Further, it concluded that 'Perhaps the most important result ... is that stabilization of [CO2] emissions does not lead to stabilisation of CO2 concentration; in fact, the calculations show that concentrations continue to increase slowly for at least several centuries.' The 1994 IPCC report also warned that a 'positive feedback' between rising temperature and CO2 levels is likely, with future greenhouse gas induced warming possibly triggering further, very large releases of CO2 and methane to the atmosphere: A clear correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature (especially during warming periods) is evident from the Ice-core records. The following are extracts of reports linking warming trends, with melting ice, drought, floods and disease during 1994/95: * Indian plague due to climate change? In November 1994, Professor Paul Epstein, of the Harvard [Young Boy] School of Public Health's working group on new disease wrote to the New York Times associating the unusually hot, wet climatic conditions which prevailed at the time with the outbreak of pneumonic plague in India in September. Epstein pointed out that the Indian plague is part of a larger pattern of disease emergence and resurgence world-wide, which may be linked to climate change, and considers that climate change may be liberating pests and pathogens from ecological controls and predation. 'Rodents and insects carry no passports,' wrote Epstein. * Temperature rise suits malaria The medical journal, the Lancet, reported in March that the temperature between 1961 and 1990 increased greatly, and in the late 1980's, malaria became established in areas where it was previously absent or rare. Nationally, cases rose by 266 percent. Considerable mortality in previously unexposed populations is likely. * Global temperatures continue to rise In 1994, recent figures show that, global temperature was the third or fourth highest on record. In Canada research showed that the permafrost has warmed appreciably, resulting in many areas now close to thawing point. In other areas, thawing has already begun. Some researchers reported that during the last 26 years, the southern limit of the permafrost region has moved 120 km north. * Antarctic ice melts Recent reports indicate a melting of sea ice around the Antarctic Peninsula, an observation which is suspected to be the cause of the decline in Adelie penguins which rely on the ice for shelter and survival. Almost every ice sheet on its coast is shrinking, as warmer summer temperatures melt the continents frozen wilderness. Warming of the Arctic permafrost is also pronounced. * Warming oceans kill coral In the Pacific, high sea temperatures were linked with unprecedented mass coral bleaching. Spanish and American researchers reported that the deep [Bleached Coral] ocean, at a depth of 800-2500 metres, in the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and the Caribbean warmed by a third of a degree in the last 35 years. The warming is surprisingly deep, but is consistent with climate model projections, as well as observations from the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the Mediterranean Sea reported in 1993. * Glaciers retreat In Switzerland, scientists claim that the retreat of glaciers gives a clear signal that the climate is changing. The retreat of mountain glaciers is striking all over the world. * Australia and New Zealand bake 1994 and 1995 saw widespread floods and droughts and associated forest or bush fires. During the Southern Hemisphere winter, New Zealand suffered the worst drought in living memory. In Australia, the fourth consecutive year of drought drastically affected production of wheat, canola, barley, cotton, oilseeds and sorghum, prompting dire warnings of huge economic losses. 'It's not an intermittent disaster. It's coming now quite regularly with climate change effects,' Prime Minister Paul Keating said of the droughts. * Fires and heatwaves across Europe The 1994 Northern Hemisphere summer saw a record heatwave right across Europe, the hottest and sunniest on record in most places from the Netherlands to Hungary and Poland. It caused widespread forest fires across Spain and the western US; rail tracks to bend in the Czech Republic; and algal blooms off the German Coast. The then German Environment Minister Klaus Toepfer blamed climate change. Japan suffered its hottest day in history. * Europe hit by floods For the second time in two years, in January 1995 Europe was struck by a 'hundred year' flood, resulting in the evacuation of 250,000 Dutch people and costing billions of US dollars. IPCC climate experts rejected claims that the flood was caused by agricultural practices. Instead, experts claim, it was caused by the unusually lengthy rainfall. Pier Vellinga from the IPCC said that though the floods were not proof of climate change, they were consistent with the projections of general circulation models (GCMs).