TL: A REPORT ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF GULF OIL FIRES (GP) SO: By Steve Elsworth Greenpeace International Phone: 071-354 5100 DT: 20 February, 1991 Keywords: gulf wars middle east fires problems after effects greenpeace gp reports / SUMMARY The main risks of explosion come from the three refineries and associated installations. It is possible to mine and explode the operational oil wells in Kuwait, and there are economic and military reasons why this may be attractive to the Iraqis. It would not be necessary to blow all the oil wells in Kuwait, or even all the operational ones, to produce serious and longlasting localised atmospheric pollution. Blowing around 40 wells would produce atmospheric pollution for more than six months. If the refineries explode, there will be the possibility of smoke injection into the stratosphere with possible long-term transport thereafter. The consequences of the oil-well burning, however, are much more likely to be localised. Regional impacts on the monsoon are more difficult to quantify. On a local scale, the impacts of large-scale smoke burning are likely to be devastating, giving rise to plumes of sulphurous, choking smogs, air and land pollution, and possible adverse health impacts to people with respiratory problems or heart difficulties who breathe the smog. Children and babies are also at risk. THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM In 1989 Kuwait produced 1,593,000 barrels per day (b/d) from 363 operating oil wells (2). Name of field, discovery date No of wells Producing Burgan, 1938 210 Ahmadi, 1952 11 Magwa, 1951 71 Raudhatain, 1955 41 Bahra, 1956 0 Sabriya, 1957 9 Minagish, 1959 1 Umm Gudair, 1962 20 Total Kuwait 363 There are also another 200 wells in the 'neutral zone' between Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, all under Iraqi control. Estimates of the amount of oil that will burn range from 1.5 to 10 million barrels per day (3,4,5). Kuwait's three refineries are all within a five mile radius of each other and therefore also significant targets for oil firing. They are (6): handling capacity storage capacity Mina al Ahmadi 288,000 b/d crude 17.9 million barrels Shuaiba 195,000 b/d 12.0 million barrels Mina Abdullah 200,000 b/d 13.6 million barrels This storage capacity is around 75% of the world's total daily crude consumption (6), so represents a significant potential oil burn. THE TYPE OF SMOKE AND GAS THAT WILL BE GENERATED The smoke effects have been estimated between a cloud of soot covering half of the Northern hemisphere within 100 days to less than 10,000 tonnes of smoke a day producing mainly regional impacts (3, 4, 5). The amount depends on how many wells are mined, and whether they can actually be set on fire. The top valve on an oil well can easily be blown, but there is a second valve lower down which is technically more difficult to explode. The rate of smoke formation depends on the amount of gas in the oil well, the presence of other gases such as butane or propane, the local weather conditions at the time of the fire, the different quantities, and rate, of oil pumped to the surface and how it is released (eg in a fine spray, a solid stream, etc). It is difficult to say how many of the oil fires currently occurring are producing wells but the Pentagon statement that these fires can be put out within a short period of time (1) appears to indicate that the fires currently burning are of a less serious nature. It is difficult to make crude oil explode, although it can be set on fire. The regional impact of burning is likely to be less than from explosion, as explosions are more likely to push smoke into the stratosphere, where it will travel further. On the other hand, the presence of gas is more likely to encourage explosion. In descending order of danger are refineries and gas processing plants, gas compressors and pipeline systems, crude lines and finally individual wellheads. The crude reserves in the oil reservoir are not likely to combust unless they come to the surface (6). The main gases of risk are: - flammable refinery gases which burn between 2 - 12 per cent with air. LPG, however, can be ignited extremely easily, a spark will do (6). - propane and butane are the largest single fire and explosive threat to Kuwait. Propane detonation, for example, is roughly tonne for tonne equivalent to TNT, but mixed gas explosions can be much higher than this (6). - ammonia is particularly nasty ????? because of its chemical effects, high flammable range in air and can also detonate (6). - naphtha is produced in two of the refineries, Mina Abdullah and Shuaiba and is notoriously difficult to put out (6). THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS The potential local effects are more definite and can be assumed with a greater degree of confidence than global effects. 1) If a large number of oil wells are set alight, they will be difficult to put out and environmental consequences will continue over a period of time. The oil wells in Kuwait are spaced at one kilometre intervals on average (1), so a 'firestorm' or 'leap-frog' scenario seems unlikely. It is well within Iraq's competence, however, to explode a number of oil wells at the same time - and it may be economically and militarily an attractive option for them to do so (6). Taking this into account, it would not need the whole of the annual oil production to burn to produce severe local environmental stress, "even deliberate blowouts at 10 per cent of producing wells would still produce an unprecedented situation, particularly if confined to a single field like Burgan or specifically Magageesh and Umm Gudayr which are further from the sea. Assuming very optimistically that there were five blowout teams and the time per well was one month, this ten per cent figure would take more than seven months [to put out]" (6). This is under the most optimistic peacetime scenarios. Under wartime conditions, capping the fires is likely to take much longer so that the environmental impact of even a small number of producing-well fires is likely to be considerable. The Iraqis have it within their capacity to produce serious and longlasting local environmental pollution as a result of blowing the Kuwaiti wells, and this has not, to the best of our knowledge, occurred yet. It has been possible to track down only one account of an oil well fire in Kuwait - the fire at well Burgan 331 in December 1964 (7). This began when the drill pipe was removed during coring operations. Gas appeared at the surface and ignited almost immediately. Although at first the well blew only gas, it later showed some oil as well, the column of flame at times reaching over 300 feet. Oil operations in the area continued as normal. To put out the fire, water was pumped from all available sources, including the sea some 15 miles away, into a specially constructed reservoir holding 10 million gallons. Water and mud were piped into the well and it was capped. The size of the operation to cap the Burgan well gives an idea of the logistical problems that would occur from multiple oil well blowouts. 2) The local consequences of oilfire burning would include an impact on local agriculture and would probably pose a health risk. This can be seen by looking at the sulphur content of Kuwaiti crude, some 2.5% by weight. On combustion, this would produce considerable quantities of sulphur, the more conservative [tranmisssion error, few words missing] This is equivalent to the annual output from the UK, however, it should be remembered that Kuwait's sulphur output, if it occurs, will be much more concentrated. The sulphur outpouring would have effects on human health if inhaled. According to anecdotal evidence, some of the Kuwaiti fields already have a bad reputation because of the sulphur content of their fuel. Mr Nabil Akel, a Lebanese-born engineer who worked in Kuwait until October for the Kuwait Oil company, said "when I was working in Kuwait, to be sent to that field was considered by us engineers as the equivalent of a death sentence" (1). 3) The local impact will be crucially dependent on weather conditions at the time of the fires. If it is raining, much of the smoke pall will be washed to earth. Iran News Agency (IRNA) reported black rain over southern Iran for two days on 26 and 27 January, accompanied by a "blanket of black smog" over the Khonj region in Larestan (8). This will have terrestrial consequences as the rain is likely to contain large quantities of sulphur and be acidic. This, according to IRNA, will pollute local drinking water supplies and is likely to have an impact on drinking water acidity. Black smogs have the possibility of adversely affecting the health of certain types of individuals - elderly people, people with respiratory or heart problems, and young children and babies. Again, local weather conditions are crucial. In December 1952, local weather conditions resulted in the retention of a large amount of atmospheric pollution over London. The air was very sulphuric and was estimated to have an acidity close to that of battery acid in places (9). 4,000 people died. If this type of pollution were to centre over cities in the Gulf, there would be civilian casualties. As to the environmental impact of such large-scale sulphur pollution from a relatively narrow source, there is a good deal of literature available about high-sulphur local pollution episodes in Eastern Europe, and around the Inco smelter in Canada available on request. 4) Wider atmospheric impacts of oil well burning are difficult to predict. It is still not possible to say whether the monsoon will be affected. The Indian government has commissioned a study which indicates there will be minimal impact on the monsoon (10). It has not been possible to progress the monsoon implications much further. Steve Elsworth References 1 Financial Times, 13 Feb 1991. 2 Oil and Gas Journal, 31 December, 1990 3 Nature, 10 January, 1991. 4 Environmental Consequences of a Gulf War, Dr John Cox, 1991. (Revised version.) 5 Possible Environmental Effects of Burning oil wells in Kuwait, UK Meteorological Office, 1991 6 Energy Economist 111, 1991 7 World Oil Scene, Institute of Petroleum Review, March 1965. 8 AFP report 27 Jan 1991 picked up by Greenbase. 9 Acid Rain, Elsworth, 1984. 10 Nature, 7 February 1991 =end=