TL: GREENPEACE MAGAZINE May/June 1989 SO: Greenpeace USA (GP) DT: May 1989 Keywords: greenpeace pre90 periodicals us digests gp / THE HEAT IS ON: Global Warming Threatens The Natural World Iceland Defies International Whaling Commission Warming Up To Nuclear Power? Marine Shale: Anatomy Of A Sham Recycler THE HEAT IS ON by Norman Myers The greenhouse effect means more than hats and sunglasses, especially for our fellow creatures. Gaia's planet manager, Norman Myers, outlines what global warming will do to the natural world. NASTY BUSINESS by Judy Christrup Marine Shale Processors sells itself as a recycler of industry's nastiest effluents. But the claim doesn't wash. Not even the best of Madison Avenue could make this scheme come clean. THROW THE DINOSAUR A BONE by Jim Harding Nuclear power is being touted as a cure for the greenhouse effect. But energy efficiency and conservation are the best medicine. ECONOTES: Big animals help little ones--Is recycling a capitalist plot?--Dirty nappies--Bhopal deal flawed--Dutch attack smog--Cleaning up Boston Harbor--Green shopper pitfalls-- Rocking the USSR. FORUM: Arms controllers come around on naval nukes. BRIEFINGS: Rainforest for $1.83 an acre--A season of spills. CAMPAIGNS: North America's coastline auctioned--Iceland's whalers take NATO base hostage--Beware CFC substitutes-- Greenpeace bus hits California's toxic hot spots. ACTION ACCESS: Support global warming act--Boycott Iceland--Get dioxins out of milk--Strike drilling plans--Waste act needs work--Cousteau launches letters. ECONOTES IN PRAISE OF BIG ANIMALS ECOLOGICALLY SPEAKing, small is where the action is. More than 99 percent of the planet's 10 to 20 million animal and insect species average about three millimeters in length. As environmentalists follow biologists in making the conceptual shift from doe eyed seal pups to termites and beetles, some scientists are concerned that the ecological importance of big animals is being overlooked. This neglect may be shortsighted. Recent studies show that elephants and jaguars, for example, play a far larger role in balancing the environment than was previously believed. In the Amazon jungle, according to Princeton University biologist John Terborgh, the eating habits of the jaguar and puma are limiting populations of smaller animals that would otherwise compete for habitat and possibly eliminate each other. Some of these smaller animals are also seed eaters which means that the big cats' diet may directly affect the density and species variety of the forest they live in. Elephants, too, have a great effect on the Savannah. In the course of foraging for the 300-plus pounds of vegetation that make up a day's meal, the elephants shred trees and shrubs, creating new habitat and keeping the grassland clear. This in turn makes it possible for animals like the forest buffalo, zebra and vervet monkey to eat well and stay healthy. Also, elephants spread seeds in their droppings. This means that, like the pumas and jaguars in the Americas, Africa's elephants help create the forest in which they live. "The essential point is that big things are important too," writes Terborgh in Conservation Biology. "What is worrisome in these changing times is that they are so much more vulnerable." RECYCLING IS A CAPITALIST PLOT From an interview with James O'Connor, professor of sociology and economics at the University of Santa Cruz, by Alexander Cockburn in February's Zeta magazine. O'CONNOR: "[By recycling your newspapers], you're lowering the costs of production for these paper companies, giving them this free labor.... If these companies lower their costs, then their profits are going to go up. If their profits go up, then their accumulation rate is going to go up, and that's going to have a positive effect on the whole economy. What you're really doing is causing problems someplace else." COCKBURN: "Because an exuberant capitalist will rush off and do some exploiting somewhere else?" O'CONNOR: Exactly. HOT SUBS IN PORT THE DEBATE OVER PORT visits of nuclear-powered vessels, already a hot topic around the world, has been fuelled further by a Green peace study showing high levels of radioactive sediments around nuclear submarine bases in Britain. A survey conducted last summer revealed that levels of cesium-137 and cesium-134 at Clyde submarine base in Scotland are two to five times higher than government figures indicate. At the U.S. sub base at Holy Loch, Scotland, cobalt-60 and cesium-137 appeared in concentrations nine times higher than official levels. The radioactivity comes from contaminated effluents, including reactor cooling water, which pour out of submarines during refuelling, refitting and general maintenance operations. One U.S. Navy officer at Holy Loch quoted in the British press said that any and all pollutants "went over the side, with little regard for the environment." WHAT'S BEHIND DISPOSABLE DIAPERS PERHAPS NO OTHER PRODUCT better represents the myopia of our throwaway culture than the disposable diaper. Last year, parents in the United States tossed out roughly 18 billion of the soiled paper and plastic contraptions, adding nearly four million tons of debris and infectious human waste to our bursting landfills. Beyond the disposal problems, the disposable diaper constitutes a hazard in its manufacture (paper-making and petroleum processing contribute significantly to pollution problems) and in its use (most bleached paper products contain some form of dioxin). One product touted as a "solution" is the biodegradable disposable diaper. Launched with much fanfare from a variety of manufacturers over the last year, biodegradable diapers in fact do little to solve the problems with throwaway diapers. They are still made of paper and plastic. And these diapers do not necessarily biodegrade, as the public generally understands the word. Adding starch compounds to the plastic, the technique most often used to make plastic "biodegradable," only makes the plastic break up into smaller pieces. Cotton diapers are clearly the way to go. According to a comprehensive report by Carl Lehrburger, sticking with cloth diapers is in most cases cheaper than using the throwaway variety. But habits are hard to change, especially when inculcated at an early age. Disposable diapers are now also on sale in toy stores-- for Cabbage Patch dolls. GREEN BUYER BEWARE SHREWD MARKETING MAY BE the underlying motive for one initiative from a chain store trumpeting "environmentally benign" products. Tesco, one of Britain's largest food chains, has unveiled a plan to mark with a logo all products it claims are manufactured with the planet's health in mind. But the chain refuses to take Iceland's fish products off its shelves in support of the whaling boycott, and Greenpeace is planning a series of protests at the company's stores. Which products are "benign" remains, unfortunately, in the eye of the beholder. The governments of Canada and Japan are also getting into the act. Tom McMillan, Canadian Minister for the Environment, has announced that the Canadian Standards Association will assess what products deserve Ottawa's seal of approval. And Japan has settled on a logo, called the Ecomark, which denotes products it considers safe for the environment. "Green-buying" initiatives are strong in the United Kingdom, where The Green Consumer Guide, by John Elkington and Julia Hailes, has become a best seller. A pamphlet prepared in the United States by the Council on Economic Priorities, Shopping for a Better World, has also sold some 200,000 copies since last December (see Action Access, Greenpeace, January/February 1989). Any reader who hears of similar "green-buying" initiatives, both public and private, should please send the information to Greenpeace magazine, 1436 U Street, NW, Washington DC 20009. ROCKING THE USSR ON MONDAY, MARCH 6, AT ONE of the largest press conferences ever held in the Soviet Union, rock stars Annie Lennox, Peter Gabriel, Chrissie Hynde and U2's the Edge joined Greenpeace campaigners and other musicians to announce the release of Greenpeace's double record, Rainbow Warriors. About 160,000 copies of the record, a collection of songs by two dozen Western groups, including REM, the Grateful Dead Talking Heads and Dire Straits, were released to Melodiya record stores throughout the country. Melodiya, the Soviet Union's sole record company, will eventually press three million copies of the album and another half-million cassettes. Proceeds from the album, which by all indications will prove a best-seller, are earmarked for Greenpeace projects in the Soviet Union and for the Foundation for the Survival and Development of Humanity, an organization set up last year to promote joint environmental research between Moscow and the West. Rainbow Warriors will be available to the rest of the world in May. CAR WARS IN EUROPE OVERALL, CAR EMISSIONS standards in Europe are perhaps two decades behind standards in the United States, and light-years behind the stringent rules that prevail in California. Thanks to the influence of European car companies and Common Market bureaucrats, European Community (EC) member countries are forced to let cars belch lead, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and other acid rain and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Reining in the polluters or providing tax breaks for cars fitted with catalytic converters would be against the EC's "fair market" principles. The Dutch, for one, are fed up. With anger over acid rain withered forests on the rise, the Parliament of the Netherlands this February voted in a substantial tax break for cars fitted with U.S.-style catalytic converters. The EC headquarters in Brussels immediately began legal proceedings. France led the charge against the upstart Dutch, even though Paris had just emerged from a killer smog that obscured the Eiffel Tower. (For a day, city officials urged that only cars equipped with catalytic converters enter the city.) Less than a month later, the EC dropped the case, making some observers feel that pan-European emissions cuts are on the horizon. Insiders say that public opinion played a role. The EC had just received kudos for its commitment to an 85 percent cut in CFC production, and a U.K.hosted greenhouse effect conference was in the headlines, as was the decision by Bucking ham Palace to catalytically convert the Royal fleet. And many European countries privately support the Dutch government's concern over car emissions. But France and the United Kingdom, among others, still have quite a distance to go before their exhausts reach tolerable levels. Ford, which has captured a third of the British car market, doesn't offer the same low-emissions cars available in the United States and adamantly opposes most efforts to clean up the British car fleet. (Fords manufactured in the U.K. produce over twice the noxious fumes of their U.S. counterparts.) And France, proxy for its recalcitrant automobile giants, Renault and Peugeot, has been just as reluctant to clean up its act. UNION CARBIDE STILL UNSETTLED WHEN FIVE MEMBERS OF India's 12-member Supreme Court declared the Bhopal lawsuit settled, executives at Union Carbide's Connecticut headquarters were elated. Press releases announcing the agreement were flashed to the media, and most of the $470 million payment was quickly transferred to India. The sum represents a fraction of the $3.3 billion sought by the 500,000 plaintiffs (thus accounting, perhaps, for the swift reimbursement). The newspapers declared the case closed, and Union Carbide's stock jumped $2.00 on the stock exchange. Not so fast. Numerous irregularities in the procedure and whiffs of scandal mean that the case may be back in court and the "settlement" annulled sometime in April. For one, the five members of the Supreme Court who negotiated the agreement were charged only with settling a dispute over interim relief payments, not with deciding the entire case. A new bench of five justices will review the agreement, and a variety of legal challenges have been raised. From the beginning, the constitutionality of the act that permitted the Indian government to speak for all the plaintiffs has been in dispute, as is the right of the five-member panel to settle the case. Also, several U.S. attorneys are pushing claims against Union Carbide in the United States. Despite the caveats, most of the U.S. press rushed to judgment. "Many newspapers didn't bother to check the story," says David Dembo of the International Coalition for Justice in Bhopal. "They just accepted the Union Carbide press release." Union Carbide's calculated haste in forwarding the token payment to India may work against them. If the settlement is reversed, India will have $420 million of the company's money to disburse as an interim payment for victim relief, something the thousands of Bhopal victims have sought, unsuccessfully, for years. BOSTON HARBOR BEAUTIFIED? LAST SUMMER, GEORGE BUSH sailed briefly through Boston Harbor, declared it the presidential campaign issue of the moment, and then pushed on to Washington, D.C. The candidate's concern over Boston Harbor's status as the nation's filthiest harbor did not carry over into the White House (indeed, this year's federal budget includes no funds for harbor cleanup). But it did spark some much-needed attention to an issue that was beginning to fester long before Michael Dukakis was born, let alone considering a run for national office. Boston's sewage system is a plumbing nightmare. The city and scores of outlying communities daily pour millions of gallons of sewage and industrial wastes through some 5,000 miles of pipes, some of which were installed more than a century ago. This noisome brew then receives either cursory treatment or no treatment at all before it is poured into the harbor. The total volume of sewage entering the bay is higher than the volume of its major "fresh-water" tributaries: the Charles, Neponset and Mystic Rivers. Thanks in part to grassroots lobbying by the state's environmental community, the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) announced in February that all the city's sewage sludge would be composted starting in 1991. Although forced to stop sludge dumping by a federal court, the state could have opted for incineration, an alternative that Greenpeace and other groups oppose because of toxic air emissions and problems with disposing of hazardous ash. The composting solution has another added benefit: federal guidelines limit the toxic content of "recycled" sewage sludge, so the MWRA's action will be accompanied by a program of source reduction and strict guidelines for industrial users of the system. In one year, Boston has gone from laggard to trailblazer in the municipal sludge battle. In the United States, only New York City and its environs continue to dump sludge into the ocean. As Washington tightens up on this out-of-sight, out-of-mind solution, city managers in New York and environmentalists everywhere will be looking to Boston to see how the composting option works out. FORUM NUCLEAR FREE SEAS COMES OF AGE BACK IN THE SUMMER of 1987, few people were concerned about the naval nuclear arms race. No major arms control group would touch the issue. It did not seem the appropriate topic upon which to launch a major public education, direct action and lobbying campaign. Into the void stepped Greenpeace. When it launched the "Nuclear Free Seas" campaign nearly two years ago, then disarmament director Jon Saxton said Greenpeace hoped to call attention to the "unnoticed, unregulated arms race at sea." A flurry of reports, pamphlets and direct actions followed, and Greenpeace set out, largely alone, to bring the issue to public attention. The campaign was not well-received. The Navy which refused to discuss naval nuclear arms control for fear of lending credibility to the concept, did not welcome the attention. Even the arms control community ridiculed the idea. "It's a bad idea" Spurgeon Keeney, Jr., president of the Arms Control Association (ACA) told Nuclear Times. "Greenpeace is proceeding orthogonally [at right angles] to the rest of the arms control community.... Green peace is injecting a new issue that may well absorb the attention of well-meaning people and remove them from the real issues. [Disarming the seas] is an idea that is not going to happen." Since that interview, the nuclear arms race at sea has become a "real issue." In fact, it has emerged as a crucial factor in U.S.-Soviet START negotiations, and it is a sticking point for the Navy, which insists on bringing nuclear weapons into ports around the world. The first public boost for the issue came from veteran conservative arms expert Paul Nitze, then senior adviser to Secretary of State George Shultz, who suggested in April of 1988 that the nation's security would be well served by negotiating a ban on all nuclear tipped sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs ), as well as the 4,000 or so miscellaneous naval nuclear weapons: depth charges, torpedoes and nuclear bombs aboard naval aircraft. Soon after, the ACA's journal, Arms Control Today, tested the waters with an article by two experts who admitted that "naval nuclear weapons have long been neglected by strategists and arms controllers alike." Arguing that naval nuclear weapons "make the Navy less welcome as a diplomatic visitor. . . and disrupt alliances that the United States seeks to reaffirm," the authors concluded that the United States would "benefit substantially from a complete ban on naval nuclear weapons." And in January of this year, a high-powered panel, headed by former U.S. Secretary of Defense Harold Brown Senator Sam Nunn, former National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane and his soon- to-be successor Brent Scowcroft, issued a report that urged nixing the deployment of nuclear SLCMs for fear of yielding the Soviet Union "a net advantage." The reasoning? In the United States, cities and many important facilities are located on the coasts, whereas Soviet targets tend to be far inland. At the group's press conference, McFarlane asked "may there not be an agreement for banning at least nuclear SLCMs?" Keeney has now joined the chorus, reversing his former support for tactical naval nuclear weapons as well as SLCMs, which can have a strategic role. "It is disadvantageous to have tactical nuclear weapons at sea," he told Greenpeace in February. "When you add this all up, the role of nuclear weapons at sea is rather limited." "Clearly we have achieved more than we expected," says William Arkin, defense specialist for the Institute for Policy Studies and Green peace's consultant on the campaign. "We have succeeded in bringing naval nuclear issues to people's attention." An inside report from a friendly researcher bears this out. In a November meeting, a senior Navy official was asked about the status of the Navy's policy to neither confirm nor deny (NCND) the presence of nuclear weapons on board its ships. "We are really getting beaten up over the NCND policy," he answered, "especially by groups like Greenpeace." The new shift in thinking, unfortunately, does not extend to all aspects of the Greenpeace campaign--at least not yet. Ballistic missile submarines and the nuclear reactors that power them are still sacrosanct. Keeney maintains that the Trident ballistic missile submarines and their intercontinental nuclear missiles are "probably the most important leg of the strategic triad" because they "contribute to deterrence." And Canada, Brazil, Argentina and India, points out Arkin, "are all eyeing naval nuclear propulsion technology," including submarines. On these issues, Greenpeace and the rest of the arms control community part company. "The Nuclear Free Seas campaign is a disarmament campaign, not an arms-control campaign," says U.S. campaign director Steve Shall horn. "We simply don't accept the argument that the oceans are a safe environment for nuclear weapons or reactors, whether they are ballistic missile submarines or not."--Robert Schaeffer THE HEAT IS ON: Global Warming Threatens The Natural World By Norman Myers THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT: QUICK RECAP The burning of fossil fuels and tropical forests throws so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that a significant percentage of the sun's heat, which would ordinarily escape into space, becomes trapped. Other "greenhouse gases" (methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons) are also produced by industrial processes, and these contribute to carbon dioxide's warming effect. Because carbon dioxide has been building up in the atmosphere since the industrial age began, it will be almost impossible to stop it. To slow down the process, it will be necessary to develop new energy policies, agricultural systems, human settlements and coastal infrastructures. The Earth's temperature has already warmed up by about one-half of a degree Celsius (C) this century. According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, and the United Nations Environment Program, the average worldwide temperature is expected to rise between 1.5 and 5 degrees C by the year 2030. (This increase could come sooner or later.) An increase of a few degrees may not sound like much, but it is at least as large as the warming that brought an end to the last ice age. It will make our Earth as warm as it has been for at least 100,000 years. But warmer temperatures will not be evenly distributed around the globe. At the equator there will be hardly any change. In mid-latitudes and in temperate zones such as North America and Western Europe, the warming will be about the same as the average worldwide, a rise of perhaps 2.5 degrees C. At the poles things will get really warm, with an increase in temperature of between 5 and 9 degrees C, which is high enough to melt much of the pack ice in short order (though the ice caps themselves could be safe for centuries). Climate and temperature predictions are based on sophisticated computer model simulations. We do not know how fast the greenhouse effect will overtake the planet or what its particular manifestations will be. But there is broad agreement that we shall shortly be living in a greenhouse affected world. According to Dr Stephen H. Schneider, a scientist at NCAR, the greenhouse effect is one of the least controversial concepts among the entire climatological community. Of course, there is still much uncertainty, but it is no longer a case of "if," but rather of "when," "how much" and "where?" In addition to rising temperatures, rainfall patterns will shift. Although the planet could receive about seven percent more rainfall, certain areas will receive less. Much of North America and parts of Europe could dry out considerably. Stronger winds, more hurricanes and assorted storms, shifting ocean currents, and a rising sea level could accompany changes in temperature and precipitation. These changes will drastically affect agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, pollution, cities, communications and threatened species. "The inhabitants of planet Earth are quietly conducting a gigantic environmental experiment," says Dr. Wallace S. Broecker, a professor at Columbia University in New York City. "So vast and so sweeping will be the impacts of this experiment that, were it brought before any responsible council for approval, it would be firmly rejected as having potentially dangerous consequences." EVERYONE KNOWS THAT WE ARE PUSHING countless plants and animals to the brink of extinction. And we all have heard about our role in raising the Earth's temperature--the infamous greenhouse effect. But we don't hear much about how the two are connected. In fact, global warming may prove to be the single greatest threat to our fellow species. At the same time, this connection may provide the incentive for a global solution to our most serious environmental crisis. For many of the Earth's plant and animal species, a few degrees makes the difference between survival and extinction. As the planet warms up, temperature bands will move away from the equator and toward the poles. Vegetation will try to adapt by following the temperature bands, though with limited success. For one thing, climatologists project that changes will not only be large, they will also arrive suddenly, almost overnight as compared with previous climate changes. At the end of the last ice age, when the glaciers covering much of North America retreated, trees and other plants followed the ebbing ice northward. But they moved slowly, at a rate of only 25 miles per century. The sudden arrival of the greenhouse effect will require communities of plants and animals to migrate at a rate ten times faster. Many, if not most, species will find it impossible to adapt and will die out. Species that can make the quick transition will encounter another problem. In the past, they have enjoyed a "free run" with only geographic obstacles--mountains, oceans, rivers-- blocking their paths. Following the last ice age, wild papaya and oranges migrated to Toronto, tapirs and peccaries to Pennsylvania. This time, wildlife species will find their way blockaded by farmlands, cities and other paraphernalia of human communities, which are "development deserts" for wildlife. To a migrating forest, a city presents just as big a barrier as a mountain range. As Dr. Robert Peters of World Wildlife Fund says, "Few animals or plants would be able to cross Los Angeles on the way to the promised land." Realistically, if the greenhouse-affected future unfolds as anticipated, it will eliminate species in huge numbers. The impact of the rifle and harpoon, the chain saw and plow, the bulldozer and pesticide pack could well be matched, if not exceeded, by the factory chimney, the auto exhaust and other sources of greenhouse gases. Nor will present networks of parks and preserves provide much help to threatened species. Protected areas have been set up to reflect natural conditions that are fast disappearing. So a rain forest park might soon start to desiccate into woodland vegetation, leaving its rain forest species high and dry. A desert preserve might be overcome by wetter conditions to which its desert-type creatures cannot adapt. In each case, of course, migration (according to the past record) drops to a mere 15 miles. Meanwhile, the climate will have moved 250 miles north. Of course, the park's creatures will seek refuge elsewhere. But they will find themselves thwarted | by the park's boundaries and the alien, human-dominated lands beyond. What was once a sanctuary will become a trap. This, then, is the general outlook for wild-life species in a world of accelerating climatic change. But how will things work out for particular species and regions, such as North American forests wetlands and tropical coral reefs? Here is a closer look at some environments. The Northern Forests Many tree species will have to migrate northward at a speed ten times greater than they have moved in the past--and do it while sidestepping cities and other impediments that people have put in their way. Difficult as this prospect is, much of its success depends on the mode of migration. If a tree reproduces by spores, it could conceivably keep up. But if, as is the case with the common beech of the eastern United States, it depends on birds and mammals to carry its seeds into new areas, the realistic range for a century-long migration (according to the past record) drops to a mere 15 miles. Meanwhile, the climate will have moved 250 miles north. Of course, we can give the poor old beech a helping hand by transplanting its seeds into new habitats. But this will reduce the species to a plantation tree. As Dr. Margaret Davis, a professor at the University of Minnesota, says, "massive and very expensive intervention" would be required to save a species we do not now view as threatened at all. So much for a single species. How about an entire biome, such as the boreal forest that spans much of northern Canada and Alaska? The outlook is dire. Although this forest will not disappear entirely, it will be reduced from 23 percent of all the world's forests to 1 percent or less. The rising temperature (with the greatest increase projected for the poles) will cause its present range to give way to vegetation patterns invading from the south. Yet the boreal forest itself will have little place to go northwards: it will simply run out of space. The great assemblages of plants and animals that make up one of the Earth's glories will fade from the scene. Fens, Bogs and Moors Different sorts of greenhouse threats are creeping up on the rich stocks of species that reside in wetlands. For instance, rising sea levels will threaten coastal wetland species. According to Dr. Jim Titus, a scientist at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in Washington, D.C., a one-foot rise in sea level would allow seawater to penetrate 35 yards inland along the average coastline. A three foot rise would inundate low-lying coastal areas almost 1,000 yards inland. A mere three inch rise would cause tidal rivers to advance even farther--more than half a mile inland, thus drowning many estuarine wetlands. Given predicted levels of warming, these are the most likely amounts of sea level rise. Less probable, but still plausible, is a six-foot rise: this would eliminate 80 percent of all U.S. coastal wetlands. Of course wetland wildlife will try to move inland. But it will find its way blocked by levees, sea walls, housing, sea-front highways and other structures. All in all, the demise of coastal wetlands as a result of sea level rise could prove to be the greatest wildlife-related impact of the greenhouse effect in the United States. As for wetlands inland, the outlook is scarcely better. Marshes, tens, peat lands, mires, swamps, bogs, sloughs, swales, wet heaths and moors cover about 6 percent of the Earth's land surface, an area roughly the size of the United States. They comprise some of the richest wildlife communities anywhere. But due largely to draining one-half of the world's wetlands have been lost since the year 1900, most of this loss in developed nations. According to Dr. R.W. Buddemeir, a scientist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory who has studied the issue extensively, the drying-out impact of the greenhouse effect will cause many remaining wetlands to evaporate. The Cote d'Azur Mediterranean-type zones, which are characterized by cool wet winters and hot dry summers, are also rich in species, particularly endemic species (those found nowhere else). California contains 5,050 higher plant species, or roughly one- quarter of the total for the United States and Canada combined. Thirty percent of them are endemic. Southwestern Australia contains 3,630 species (80 percent endemic) in just 2,340 square miles, an area one-seventieth the size of California. The Cape Floristic Province in South Africa contains 8,600 species (73 percent endemic) in 30,000 square miles and is ultra-rich in animal species (a roughly similar proportion is endemic). As the greenhouse effect overtakes these exceptional ecosystems, they may well experience not only increased temperatures but declining rainfall, according to Dr. Bert Bolin of the University of Stockholm. Naturally enough, vegetation communities in these zones will seek to migrate toward territories with customary climates. But the California biome will find its way blocked by human settlements in Oregon and Washington states. And according to Dr. Barry Pittock of the Australian National University and Dr. Anthony Hall of the Bolus Herbarium in Cape Town, South Africa, species in the other two zones will find no land at all to receive them, only sea. Tropical Coral Reefs The tropics are far richer in species than temperate zones, but as noted previously, they may suffer less climate change. Least affected of all could be equatorial rain forests, containing at least 80 percent of all species on Earth. But coral reefs, the second richest biome after tropical forests, could be in deep trouble. Coral reef species tend to live close to their temperature limits. When heated waste water from industrial installations and domestic sources is dumped into a coral reef, as is sometimes done in Hawaii, the reef suffers. Moreover, natural warmings in recent years have caused mass fatalities in several localities. The unusual 1983 warming of the southern Pacific current, known as "El Nino," increased the temperature three to four degrees Celsius for just six months. But this was enough to do widespread damage to coral reefs in the South Pacific. A greenhouse warming of tropical seas will be impossible for corals to tolerate. Still more harmful will be a rise in sea level. As the ocean's surface waters warm up, they will expand. Scientists at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, the National Center for Atmospheric species could be in for considerable turmoil. Research in Boulder, Colorado, and the United Nations Environmental Program in Nairobi project that the sea level will rise from 1.5 feet to 7 feet during the next century. Although corals can grow upwards, of course, they cannot generally do it at even half the pace they will need to keep up with the rising sea level. So they will eventually drown. Moreover, the increased depths of sea water will reduce available sunlight, which will inhibit and even halt coral growth. These factors in themselves could be enough to kill off entire coral reef ecosystems. Of course certain coral species will probably respond better than others. For instance, "antler" corals grow more rapidly than others. But because they have branched forms, they are particularly susceptible to storm damage, and the greenhouse effect could increase the incidence of tropical storms. The Deep Blue How will open-ocean (non-coastal) species fare in a greenhouse- affected world? Alas, more bad news. So far as we can tell, marine species could be in for considerable turmoil. In addition to ocean surface warming, major ocean currents could shift. The Gulf Stream could stop flowing northeastward as far as Europe. and instead swing southward into the mid-Atlantic. This would leave northwestern Europe with a colder climate overall and possibly push to final oblivion the North Atlantic herring and the 20-odd other species already threatened by over-fishing in the North Atlantic. In addition, the global warming could trigger crucial changes in up welling zones, such as the famous anchovy site off Peru, in sea salinity and in sea ice patterns, which could affect fish species long accustomed to stable environments. Incidence of sea storms, including hurricanes, will probably increase, though this would affect coastal wetlands more than deep water species. And all this will take place in ecosystems where threatened species are beyond helping hands. As EPA's Titus puts it, "We'll be mere spectators in the adjustments to climate change [in the oceans]. People will have to adapt to whatever the fish decide to do." The combined effects of global warming and ozone layer depletion, at least in Antarctica with its wealth of marine life, could be the most significant development of all. On top of greenhouse mayhem, Antarctica will suffer the consequences of increased ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) as a result of the United States-sized "hole" punched in the ozone layer over that continent. Excess ultraviolet light reduces the productivity of phytoplankton and weakens the basis of ocean food webs. This will harm the rich marine ecosystem surrounding Antarctica, where ultraviolet radiation will be most pronounced. Were the phytoplankton to decline, herbivorous krill-- small crustaceans that abound in the Southern Ocean and serve as a primary food resource for many other creatures--would be immediately affected. There would be adverse repercussions for the many other creatures that depend on krill, including the spectacular throngs of penguins, seals, dolphins and whales. What Can We Do? There are a few things we could do about the impending debacle. First, where possible, we could extend parks and reserves northwards (and southward in the southern hemisphere). This will help provide migration corridors through human-dominated territories. Several private sector groups are planning a network of "green ways" across the United States. Second, we could establish a host of new parks and reserves designed to counter the greenhouse effect. This does not mean they will all have to be long sausage-shaped areas. They can include areas with an unusual array of uplands and mountains: a species moving 1,500 feet uphill could achieve the same result climate-wise as migrating 200 miles northwards. Third, we could manage our present parks and reserves to compensate for climate change. For instance, if an area becomes too dry, we could irrigate it. We could employ similar "heroic" measures by transporting species from one place to another. To be sure, these environments would no longer be "natural," and the very notion of wild lands may be something our descendants will know about only through books and films. It is ironic that just as we are remaking zoos in order to replicate natural surroundings, so we shall have to manage our parks as something akin to mega-zoos, with highly intensive intervention on all sides, if they are to retain much wildlife at all. This will require expensive and never-ending efforts. After doing our best, we will probably discover we have lost more species than we have saved. There is, of course, another solution. Losing species may be the built-in price for responding to symptoms of problems rather than to problems themselves. How about tackling the greenhouse effect head-on? So far many political leaders, as well as some in the general public, have talked about it as if the most acceptable response is to learn to live with the problem, to adapt in a thousand ways. But as the threatened species problem is added to the problems of dust-bowl agriculture, coastal cities afloat and mass migrations away from the excessive-sun belt shouldn't we ask whether it might be less costly in the long run to try to tame the greenhouse problem? We cannot eliminate it altogether. We are too late for that. But we still have time to cut back on the problem severely. What would it take? Primarily we need to cut down on fossil fuels. We can do this, without any decline in living standards. But we must cut out the absurd waste and mobilize the clean sources of energy (solar, tidal, etc.) forthwith. In individual terms, we can forego some private driving in favor of mass transit, conserve energy within the home, recycle energy-costly materials, and apprise ourselves of the myriad other ways to practice energy efficiency. It would also help to halt the burning of tropical forests and plant a few trillion trees to soak carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. It could all be done at a cost small in comparison to the cost of living in a greenhouse. The Good News After such a welter of bad news, here is the payoff: the good news. Because we stand to mess things up irrevocably this time, we might decide that enough is enough and pull together to set things right. If we do, we might not only fix the greenhouse effect, or at least reduce it to a level that we and the Earth's ecosystems could live with. We might also solve a few other problems. By reducing our careless use of fossil fuels and increasing our use of pollution control and energy efficiency devices, we could surely reduce acid rain. And by cutting out the most potent of all greenhouse gases, the chlorofluocarbons, we would start to contain the ozone-layer problem. To be sure, this would take an unprecedented effort. But after coping with the fossil-fuel problem, we might find it possible to deal with pollution, desertification, soil erosion, population growth, Third World poverty and the many other issues that plague us and our Earth. If we ever manage to regulate our human appetites and numbers, we can find that we have made room for our fellow species as well. Nothing less will do. For a long time it has seemed that nothing would be dramatic enough to spur both citizens and leaders to action. Politicians continue to adjust this and tinker with that, as if we had another planet parked out there in space, ready to inhabit after we foul up this one. Will it take a Chernobyl, a Bangladeshi flood and an Ethiopian famine every month before the politicians finally get the message? Perhaps the greenhouse effect can be a catalyst for global awakening and action. It is going to affect people in all parts of the world. We must realize that the greenhouse-effect flooding of Bangladesh will ultimately mean that a quarter of that country disappears beneath the waves, and for good; that African droughts could be more severe than anything we have seen to date; that America's grain belt will come unbuckled; that a dried-out Central America will send many more people north across the Rio Grande; and that barricading America's shorelines will cost a cool $110 billion. That is just for starters. The greenhouse effect is not some new challenge a political leader should try to handle before the next election, but something we must head off while there is still time. Who knows, one day we may thank the greenhouse effect for sending a message that even the most optimistic politicians could not ignore. Wouldn't it be sweet irony for our fellow species if the greatest threat they have ever encountered turned out to be a source of relief, the only one that really made a difference? Norman Myers, Ph. D., a consultant in environment and development, lives in Oxford, England. He is editor of the Gaia Atlas of Planet Management and the author of many acclaimed environmental books, including The Primary Source and The Thinking Arc. NASTY BUSINESS: The Marine Shale Masquerade By Judy Christrup Everyone liked Jack. He supported the Chamber of Commerce and the Morgan City High School Band. He even bought uniforms for the little league. But then his kids got sick. Five children living downwind from Jack's company, Marine Shale Processors (MSP), contracted neuroblastoma - a rare form of cancer. Two died. The connection between the children's deaths in 1988 and Jack's company has not been proven scientifically, but it has turned public sentiment against Jack Kent, president of the largest hazardous waste incinerator in the country. Kent doesn't call himself a hazardous waste burner. Rather, he fancies himself a recycler. According to his promotional video, "MSP is designed to manufacture aggregates from a variety of industrial solids and liquids." This means that Marine Shale accepts a variety of toxic materials, from every state in the continental United States, so long as it can be moved by truck, train or barge to Amelia, Louisiana, home of MSP. Then MSP burns the toxic waste in a kiln - barrels and all - and tries to sell the leftover combustion ash or "aggregate" to construction projects as road building and fill material. But few are buying. Although MSP bases its claim to being a recycler on the sale of aggregate, less than one percent of its income comes from sale of this "product". The rest of Marine Shale's gross revenue ($40 million in 1988) are fees generators of toxics gladly pay to get rid of their waste. It's a matter of definition. Kent calls combustion ash "aggregate". He describes burning hazardous waste as "recycling". But the situation in Amelia is far more serious than a discussion of semantics. In putting himself forward as a recycler, Kent insists that MSP is not subject to many stringent state and federal laws for handling, storing and burning hazardous waste. Since Kent spends comparatively little on containment, safety and pollution control equipment, he undercuts his competitors. He also endangers the environment and public health of southern Louisiana. According to Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LADFEQ) records, MSP has been emitting dangerous toxins into the air, ground and water since it opened for business in 1985. In 1986, the Coast Guard found MSP storing hazardous materials in barges on nearby Bayou Boeuf. One of the barges was tilted over at a 40 degree angle, with waves washing in and out. The barge's tilt alarm has been disabled. Nearby fish showed high levels of mercury poisoning. During the same year, an MSP employee swore that he was following orders when he spent an entire day dumping degreaser, lime and Tide detergent into Bayou Boeuf in order to sink an oil spill. MSP operations in 1987 were marked by equipment fires (and accompanying toxic fumes), multicolored smoke emissions, and "accidental" hydrocarbon releases. And in 1988, fires broke out, barges leaked and local residents complained of skin irritations and foul odors. Despite a U.S. Department of Justice grand jury investigation, at least one civil law suit and more than $4 million in penalties fro LADEQ, Marine Shale is burning more hazardous waste than ever before. Its kiln takes in more than 100,000 tons a year of every imaginable toxin: pesticide waste, DDT, cyanide, lead smelting sludge, solvents and dioxin-laced wood preservatives, such as pentachlorophenol and creosote. Kent hopes to double his business and gross $80 million this year. He has appealed or ignored virtually every order given ny LADEQ. In the time it takes to fight these orders, his profits accumulate, enabling him to keep fighting. Government bureaucrats simply do not have the authority to deal quickly with flagrant violators like MSP. "Trying to deal with Marine Shale is like trying to deal with a greased pig in a dark room," Louisiana's Assistant Attorney General told a local news program. Until Louisiana inaugurated its new governor last year, Kent had the sympathetic ear of governor Edwin Edwards, and LADEQ's hands were effectively tied. But LADEQ says it is moving ahead with its case against Marine Shale. Says Elizabeth Megginson of LADEQ's legal affairs office, "LADEQ has moved pretty fast in the last year. If we're going to do it, we're going to do it right." MARINE SHALE'S HELICOPTER IS OCCASIONally heard over Amelia. In keeping with his flamboyant character, Kent has been known to land atop a storage tank holding flammable hazardous wastes. Kent wasn't always rich enough to ride around in helicopters. He lost his shirt in the oil bust of the early 1980's, when his oil field supply business went bankrupt. He nonetheless arranged a $7.5 million loan from a local savings and loan, bought the old Pelican State lime kiln in December 1984 and obtained permits from Louisiana Office of Conservation and St. Mary's Parish Council to incinerate non-hazardous oil field wastes using coal or natural gas. Kent told the New Orleans news program "Bill Elder's Sunday Journal" what happened next. "So then our fuel bill was like $90,000 per month," said Kent. "I asked my attorney, 'Can we start taking hazardous materials to cut down on this fuel bill?' George [Eldrege] looked into it and said we definitely can if we meet the air requirements and we'll have to get a modification to our permit." But Kent didn't have any such "modifications" when he started using hazardous waste to fuel his kiln. Eldrege did write to Pat Norton, Secretary of LADEQ, asking her to approve alternate fuel sources, such as ethers, solvents and sludges, to supplement their natural gas and coal fuel. But Norton only gave permission to MSP to use "non-hazardous solid wastes . . .for energy recovery and/or for manufacturing a product." Norton called such use "legitimate resource recovery." When MSP began burning creosote wastes without a permit, residents complained of noxious smokestack fumes. The 16th Judicial Court placed a 10-day restraining order on MSP to stop it from burning creosote. LADEQ issued its first compliance order against MSP for storing hazardous waste without a permit, releasing hazardous waste into the ground and water and violating its air quality permit. Norton opposed giving MSP permission to burn creosote wastes, but was hounded by then-governor Edwards. Edwards made numerous phone calls to Norton, asking her to issue a permit. He summoned her to the 18 governor's mansion in December 1985 where she was told, in Kent's company, to sign a letter of authorization. Reluctantly, she agreed. This allowed MSP to burn one type of hazardous waste, creosote. But the only piece of paper recognizing Marine Shale as a "recycler" of hazardous wastes was sent by LADEQ Assistant Secretary, John Koury, on June 9, 1986. This letter granted MSP "interim status as a storage facility" and said that MSP could "receive hazardous waste for storage prior to reuse and/or recycling if such waste has been listed in the facility's Part I Permit Application or in any subsequent approved revisions to that application." Koury's letter was sent without Secretary Norton's knowledge, but, according to Norton, even she didn't have the authority to sign such a letter. According to LADEQ's Megginson, "You can't bestow interim status. You either have it or you don't. It's like a grandfather clause. It's for operators already in existence when federal hazardous waste laws were passed." KENT COUNTERS THE COMPLAINTS, CHARGES investigations, violations and penalties filed against Marine Shale with legal maneuvers and slick newspaper, magazine and television advertisements. This strategy has succeeded in winning people over to his side. And with Marine Shale employing some 300 people, there is economic pressure to keep the plant open. Kent's newest media target is Washington, D.C., where he is suspected of trying to rally the support of federal regulators. Marine Shale recently bought time on the 11:00 p.m. news on several Washington television stations, running commercials so misleading that Greenpeace has filed a petition with the Federal Trade Commission to have them taken off the air. One of the TV commercials opens with Kent standing before a backdrop of nasty looking muck. He says: "This is hazardous waste. It's dirty, and it's poison. It's no use to cuss the folks who left it here, 'cause without them there wouldn't be much of Louisiana. Now somebody's got to clean the stuff up. That's what we do. We're Marine Shale Processors of Amelia, and we turn that nightmare into this harmless, reusable material. Marine Shale Processors. We not only clean the stuff up. We make it safe to use." But in Green peace's opinion, MSP's incinerator ash is not safe to use. In its compliance order of January 13, 1989, LADEQ identified some of MSP's aggregate piles as hazardous waste and directed the company to remove the piles to "an approved off-site facility." And it is deceiving for Kent to say that MSP turns toxic nightmares into harmless materials. In addition to producing "aggregate," MSP's so-called "recycling" releases a host of toxic by-products into the environment. All of Marine Shale's TV ads end with a written tag line: "Marine Shale Processors. Environmentally Safe." But LADEQ, the agency responsible for regulating Marine Shale, sees it differently. Its latest compliance order and penalty notice states: "MSP is storing hazardous waste in a manner which is not environmentally safe." And LADEQ's Elizabeth Megginson says, "They're serious violations, and they're violations which pose a great risk to the environment." The danger MSP poses to the environment is not just limited to Louisiana. Other industries across the nation are following MSP's lead and burning hazardous waste under the claimed federal loophole for recycling. These facilities assert they are cleaning up hazardous wastes, but are themselves sources of pollution, not subject to even the most basic regulations imposed on hazardous waste incinerators. These facilities are a serious disincentive to reducing and eliminating the production of hazardous waste at the industrial source. "Industries must be encouraged to develop safe materials and clean technologies," says Greenpeace toxics campaigner Fred Munson. "Allowing the proliferation of 'sham' recycling facilities works against any long-term solution to our toxic waste problem." BRIEFINGS HOW ONE RAINFOREST WAS SAVED LAST JULY, WHEN ETHNO-botanist Paul A. Cox arrived in the Western Samoan village of Falealupo, he was shocked to find loggers shearing off the forest's prized trees. He rushed to the village chiefs to ask them why this desecration was taking place. "They simply had no other choice," says Cox. "They had resisted the loggers' requests for years, but finally had to succumb." Because the Western Samoan government had condemned the local children's school and demanded the village build another one, Falealupo chiefs found themselves an agonizing choice: cut the rain forest or forego their children's education. Says Cox, "these high chiefs literally cried when they saw their trees being felled." The 30,000 acres of rain forest surrounding Falealupo village on the island of Savai'i comprise one of the world's last surviving paleotropical rain forests, says Cox, an associate professor of ethnobotany at Brigham Young University who has conducted research in Samoa for more than a decade. "The government of Western Samoa estimates that if logging continues at the present rate, the entire country will be logged out within 20 years," Cox says. Samoa, about halfway between Honolulu and Sydney, is divided into American Samoa (77 square miles) and Western Samoa (1,093 square miles). On the island of Savai'i, the largest of nine islands making up Western Samoa, about 80 percent of the lowland tropical rain forest has been replaced by plantations or logged. In American Samoa, 95 percent of lowland rain forest and 40 percent of the primary rain forest is gone, Cox says. Not enough money was coming in from the village's cash crop, cacao, because the season had been too wet and the harvest poor. So the village chiefs reluctantly signed a licensing agreement with a local logging company that allowed the firm to cut trees until the school debt was paid off. "We were really in bondage to this school, and we didn't know how in the world to pay off our debt," says High Chief Seumanutafa Siosi."We support efforts to preserve the rain forest 100 percent." By Western standards, Falealupo's debt for building the school was small, only $55,000, but it was a huge amount of money for the community. Raising money became Cox's first project. He forwarded about $500 to the Bank of Western Samoa to cover that month's bill, personally guaranteed payments for the next six months and began making plans to raise the money to pay for the school and preserve the rain forest. "If you can believe this, I figure it costs about $1.83 to save an acre of rain forest on this island," Cox says. "What an incredible legacy we can leave the world with such a small amount of money." Cox quickly convinced Verne Read of Bat Conservation International to take over payments for the next several months while he searched for other sources of money. He told potential donors that "it's crazy to kick these people off their land by buying up the rain forest." Foreign ownership of rain forest land may be a good idea in some countries, Cox believes, but it is culturally or politically unacceptable in others. Better to work with indigenous cultures by helping them economically, and support their natural desire to preserve tropical rain forests. In December 1988, Cox convinced Rex Maughn of Forever Living Products and Ken Murdoch of Nature's Way, both manufacturers of natural products, to support the project. And in February, Maughn and Murdoch travelled to Western Samoa to present checks totalling $45,000 to the chiefs of Falealupo. The donors also signed a unique document conceived, negotiated and written by Cox that required the donors to relinquish any rights to the rain forest. Each Falealupoan high chief co-signed the covenant and promised in return to preserve the land for 50 years. They pledged to protect the indigenous flora and fauna, including endangered species such as the "flying fox," a fruit eating bat that is the forest's main pollinator. The covenant provides for limited use of the rain forest by local people, thus preserving their right to collect plants for medicinal purposes and select certain woods for carving ceremonial kava bowls and building canoes, homes and meeting houses. Small, traditional garden plots are allowed if they are planted along the edge of the forest and do not involve clearing any primary rain forest land. Cox and other scientists will also be permitted to continue their scientific research in the forest, which includes harvesting plants for pharmacological testing. For his efforts, Cox has been recognized in Samoa-- the chiefs made him an honorary "high chief"--but also in places as far away as Sweden, where the king and queen invited him to discuss his work on forest preservation in March, and the king donated $1,000 to the Falealupo project.--Nancy Perkins Nancy Perkins is National News Coordinator for Brigham Young University. She recently visited Western Samoa. WHAT'S BEHIND THE SPILLS [As we go to press, the most devastating oil spill in U.S. history, more than 11 million gallons from the crippled tanker Exxon Valdez, is coating the frigid waters and the abundant wildlife of Alaska's Prince William Sound.] IT WAS A SEASON OF SPILLS. On December 22, 1988, a seagoing tug gashed a hole in the side of a barge, spilling 230,000 gallons of oil into Gray's Harbor on the coast of Washington State. Heavy seas and strong winds smeared the oil across 300 miles of coastline, including the scenic parts of the Olympic National Park and the Pacific Rim National Park in Canada. One month later, on January 28,1989, the captain of the Argentine supply ship Bahia Paraiso ignored warnings and charted a course that ran his ship into rocks off Antarctica's Palmer Peninsula. The ship broke apart, spilling some 250,000 gallons of oil near thriving penguin, seal and sea bird colonies and a U.S. scientific research facility. For a while, the oil spills were in the headlines. It helped that two were in remote, sensitive areas, and the third on the doorstep of a major city. But the attention faded with the tide, and few looked further than the oiled birds and clean-up crews that followed them. Unlike the wholesale review of safety and security provoked by the recent rash of airplane accidents, the implications of oil exploration, and the attendant spills, remain largely unexamined. Oil spills, it is assumed, are a natural part of our industrial landscape. Perhaps they shouldn't be. First, these spills were relatively small. Neither of them approached the mammoth slicks that accompanied the wreck of the AMOCO Cadiz off Brittany in 1978 or the infamous Ixtoc oil rig blowout in the Gulf of Mexico a year later. But they proved to be nearly impossible to clean up. At Gray's Harbor, foul weather spread the slick up and down the coast and hampered the would-be rescuers. "I don't know any equipment that can contain oil in 15-foot waves," Canadian Coast Guard commander Colin Hendry told the Vancouver Sun. "If you know anyone who does, get them to give me a call." As for the Antarctic spill, the clean-up equipment needed to deal with the spill was unavailable. It took a week to ferry the appropriate gear to the remote site, and the delay was costly. The wreck is 500 yards from Litchfield Island, an area protected under international agreement for its wildlife. Thousands of sea birds have already washed up dead on the shore. Neither are these spills the rarities that the headlines would suggest. A Peruvian research ship ran aground off Antarctica less than a month after the much-publicized Argentine accident. A week later, 117,000 gallons of oil poured from an EXXON tanker onto a Hawaiian beach. During January alone, Green peace recorded six ship, barge and boat wrecks in Alaskan waters that released or threatened to release large quantities of oil. One accident dumped nearly two million gallons of diesel fuel into the frigid Alaskan waters. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates there are some 10,000 oil spills a year in the United States alone, an annual gusher that costs some $175 million a year to clean up. And even this deluge is exceeded by the quantity of oil annually poured into coastal waters from what are known as "routine" releases--the bilge and oil tanker cleaning, and drilling rig discharges that attend day-to-day oil development and transport. If the development of offshore oil in North American and Antarctic waters proceeds as planned, the recent spills may warn of worse things to come. In addition to the controversial plan to begin drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, the U.S. Department of the Interior is preparing to lease vast tracts of coastal waters along the Arctic and Pacific coasts, as well as offshore sites near North Carolina and in the Gulf of Mexico (see Campaigns). As for the relatively untouched Antarctic, the countries that are party to the Antarctic Treaty have designed a minerals agreement that could, if ratified, unleash a Klondike-like rush for oil and other minerals on the continent. Exploration in colder climes presents a particular threat. Accidents are far more likely in the storm-tossed polar seas, particularly in the company of icebergs. Oil slicks in the Antarctic are a hardier and more dangerous variety; salt-water microbes, for example, take much longer to break down the oil. Also, oil freezes in the ice, and is slowly released into the environment during ensuing thaws. Oil exploration in the Antarctic will mean "more ships, more vehicles and more people, all crowding onto the tiny two percent of the continent that is ice-free," says Sue Sabella, Antarctic campaigner for Green peace. "This is the same two percent we must share with most of Antarctica's wildlife. We've found that the scientific community can't even police their garbage and waste. Imagine what it will be like when heavy industry gets here." The record for the industry elsewhere bears out these fears. An EPA report disclosed in March details a host of environmental problems at the oil complex on Alaska's North Slope, including overflowing waste disposal pits, toxic chemical spills, stacks of leaking drums and a series of blatant violations of EPA regulations. According to the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, each of the 500 to 600 wells on the North Slope generates about 840,000 gallons of waste each year, much of it dumped onto tundra wetlands. In 1987, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reported that "fish and wildlife habitat losses from construction and operation of the pipeline system and the Prudhoe Bay oil fields were greatly underestimated in the environmental impact statement." This litany of unexamined costs leaves out, of course, the environmental effects of the subsequent use of the fossil fuels, extracted with such dire effect. Nor does it touch on the economic convolutions required to make the keep-on-drilling philosophy appear reasonable. But, for the record, according to University of California energy expert Arthur Rosenfeld, the United States loses more energy each year through poorly engineered windows than is provided by all the oil flowing through the Alaska pipeline. From this perspective, leaving it in the ground is far cheaper and less destructive than pumping it, burning it and spilling it across oceans from Cape Horn to the Bering Sea. THROW THE DINOSAUR A BONE The New Pitch For Nuclear Power By Jim Harding BRICE LALONDE, FOUNDER OF FRIENDS OF THE Earth in France and currently that nation's environment minister, told Nucleonics Week last year he is reconsidering nuclear power. The Union of Concerned Scientists, the organization that initiated the debate on reactor safety in the early 1970s, now tells its members that it favors development of a second generation of nuclear power plants. The Climate Institute, whose board includes several respected environmentalists, recently called upon activists to leave the door open for "safe" nuclear energy. Senator Tim Wirth (D-CO), long one of the best environmentalists in Congress, has cosponsored climate protection legislation that calls for, among other things, research on a new generation of "safe" nuclear plants. Environmental organizations are divided on whether they can fully support this legislation. Wirth, meanwhile, urges any fence sitters to outgrow their "nuclear measles" in the face of climate risks that have changed his mind on the risk of nuclear energy. Granted, the threat of greenhouse warming is real. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25 percent since the mid-19th century, both because of deforestation and growing use of oil, gas and coal. Equally troublesome are a host of other gases, including CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), methane, nitrogen oxides and ozone that trap heat attempting to escape the atmosphere. Most climatologists now project a three to ten degree Fahrenheit increase in average surface temperatures during the 21st century, much of which is "locked in" by greenhouse gases that have already been released. Some scientists anticipate a rise of three to ten feet in sea level, but such figures do not begin to measure ecological consequences. Warming will play havoc with water supplies, rainfall patterns and agriculture. The rate of climate change expected in the next 100 years dwarfs by about 30 times the rate of global warming that followed the last ice age. Forests moved about one kilometer per year during that period. It takes very little daydreaming to appreciate the profound ecological consequences of a thirty-times-faster change (see The Heat Is On). But whatever the motivation for reassessing it, an endorsement of nuclear power flies in the face of the lessons learned about energy during the 1970s and 1980s. While the greenhouse effect should be taken seriously, it makes no sense to adopt nuclear power as a solution. Nuclear power remains a major problem. Its financial cost and environmental risk make it unacceptable as a solution to greenhouse-induced global warming. High Costs During the energy crisis of the early 1970s, nuclear power was touted as an inexpensive energy source that would replace scarce oil and gas. But then as now, nuclear power was limited to producing electricity, which is the most expensive form of energy and represents only about 10 to 15 percent of energy use. It is far too expensive to compete against oil and gas for most of what oil and gas does-- provide heat for buildings and industry and fuel for transportation. As a heat source nuclear electricity is equivalent to buying oil at more than $200 per barrel. It is nuclear power's economic inability to replace oil, gas and coal (at the equivalent of $15 to $30 per barrel) that has crippled its expansion in even the most ardent, pro nuclear nations. Given current prices, the high cost of nuclear power makes it the last choice of any utility looking for new ways to meet demand. By comparison, a new coal plant, with emission controls that make it cleaner than the average oil-fired power plant, is cheaper by nearly half. Cheaper still is a natural gas fired plant. Improvements in jet engine technology have come so far that utilities can profit from closing down a coal-based power plant, erecting a gas-fired turbine and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by three-quarters. One company that builds power plants has found that it can offset all the new carbon dioxide emissions by planting trees. Applied Energy Services of Arlington, Virginia, estimates that the cost of this is about five percent of the total price of the plant. The result is a plant that has the same climatological impact as a nuclear power plant at better than half the price. Solar electric cells or photovoltaics that produce electricity also have about the same impact on the atmosphere's carbon dioxide levels as nuclear power plants. Improvements in amorphous silicon cells have come so quickly that if one believes the press releases, the technology is competitive with new nuclear plants today--not that this is any great bargain. But the best option, cheaper than any new energy supply and causing no increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, is energy efficiency. Conservation During the energy crisis of the 1970s, energy conservation and efficiency did more than anything else to ease the shortage. Between 1978 and 1986, growth in energy efficiency displaced 13 times more fossil fuel than did growth in nuclear power. Compared with 1973 the United States in 1988 used 27 percent less energy per dollar of Gross National Product and produced 30 percent less carbon dioxide. According to estimates by scientists at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, full implementation of today's energy-conserving technologies could cut U.S. energy consumption by more than half, slashing carbon dioxide emissions by an equal amount. It would be unimaginably expensive and difficult to accomplish the same goal with nuclear-generated electricity. To do it globally by 2020 would require the installation of two nuclear plants per day between 1995 and 2020. This is 40 times faster than the installation rate achieved worldwide during the last decade. The cost? Hardly worth the time to calculate given the odds against it, but for those who care, it would cost $50 trillion. The new proponents of nuclear power argue that nuclear power is, at best, a partial solution. But there are several problems with this argument. Under the best of circumstances, a dollar spent on nuclear power might displace about six pounds of coal used at another electric plant. But the same dollar spent on electric efficiency programs saves more than 40 pounds of coal. The cost of picking nuclear power over efficiency measures to accomplish the same goal is 34 pounds of coal needlessly burned. There is also a practical political problem with a resurgence of nuclear power. This cumbersome technology inevitably drains resources away from less glamorous but far more effective efficiency improvements. Despite the economic collapse of nuclear power throughout the United States and most of Western Europe, many governments remain adamantly pro nuclear. Thus, as one climate expert put it in defending Senator Wirth's bill, "You may have to throw a bone to the dinosaur" to get any positive legislation through Congress. The problem is that those throwing the bone feed a problem, nuclear power, not possible solutions, such as conservation. It is a mistake to use nonexistent technology as a panacea and pretend that nothing else needs to be done. This is the gambit undertaken by those who hold the door open for a new generation of "safe" reactors. Environmental Risk Its proponents argue that a new generation of "inherently safe" reactors will overcome the public's "nuclear measles." But developing "inherently" or "passively" safe reactors calls into question the safety of the more than 400 operating nuclear plants worldwide that are not "inherently safe." It would be difficult to sell simultaneously the safety advantages of a new design and defend the continued operation of the current facilities. And whatever terminology is used, no "inherently safe" plants now exist, and it would take several decades to prove that the new designs were reliable, let alone "safe." Even nuclear plants closest to a new design generation will still have to dispose of radioactive waste and could still contribute to the spread of nuclear weapons. More likely, given the deadlines, research funds would support very modest improvements in existing nuclear technology. But the further the industry strays from existing technology, the more difficult the task becomes to sell the cost and reliability of new technology. And the closer the industry stays to today's product, the tougher it will be to win public acceptance. Either way, nuclear power is a risky and expensive distraction from the vital task of protecting the planet's atmosphere. The Politics of Change Steady increases in energy efficiency, coupled with development of renewable resources, present the best strategy for climate protection. To cut global carbon dioxide emissions in half, energy efficiency gains must outstrip economic growth by about 50 percent. In a world economy growing about 3 percent per year, efficiency improvements need to reach about 4.5 percent per year. This is a faster rate of improvement than was achieved in the last decade by the United States (2.9 percent per year gain) or Japan (3.4 percent per year), but it is conceivable, while a world with thousands of "inherently safe" reactors is not. In the 1970s, high energy prices persuaded many to improve efficiency and increase auto mileage standards. Rising prices also caused demand to fall. The market worked to promote conservation. But the worsening climate does not have the same economic clout that OPEC had. The greenhouse effect does not automatically affect energy prices, which means that it won't necessarily change the way energy is used. Because the market won't push change along, people will have to use political means to promote conservation, increased efficiency and renewable resources. Since the mid-1980s, most energy prices have fallen. Without a new tax on fossil fuels, energy prices are likely to remain low for at least another decade. During that time, the environmental movement must redouble its effort to convince governments worldwide of the necessity of increasing energy efficiency. This can be done with energy taxes, efficiency standards on buildings, appliances and automobiles, financial incentives to go beyond minimum efficiency, and further research on renewable energy sources and energy conservation. But the more time it takes to adopt such a strategy, the more likely we are to grab at nuclear straws. Jim Harding is an energy analyst for MHB Technical Associates in San Jose, California. CAMPAIGNS NEW ADMINISTRATION, SAME OLD STORY IN 1987 THE REAGAN administration unveiled a five-year plan for selling the nation's outer continental shelf (OCS) to the oil companies. Nearly 1.4 billion acres were scheduled to be put on the block, including areas like Alaska's Bristol Bay, one of the most productive fish and marine mammal habitats in the world. Two years later, much has been sold, but much has been delayed thanks to environmentalists and angry residents. This February, in an effort to placate the opposition, George Bush formed a task force to examine the environmental implications of leasing parts of the coasts of California and Florida. At best, it appears a hollow gesture. The task force, as originally conceived, consisted of people from the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior and the National Academy of Sciences--no state or environmental representatives. Until members of Congress pressed the White House, even the Environmental Protection Agency was not included. And the choice of "sensitive" sites to be reviewed appears to be based less on science than on the strength of the local opposition to the government's leasing plans. Left off the review list are such notable natural areas as Alaska's Bristol Bay, the Beaufort Sea, North Carolina's Outer Banks and a lease site off central California. "What makes Florida and southern California any more worthy of reconsideration than central California, Alaska or North Carolina?" asks Dorrie Smith, Greenpeace OCS campaigner. "Is it safe here, but not safe there?" Environmentalists plan to fight the "task force" strategy of the administration, with its implicit trade-off among various parts of the nation's coastline, and to bring all threatened areas back onto the national agenda. Greenpeace and its allies will lobby to renew the moratorium on oil leasing and exploration in Florida, New England's Georges Bank and northern California and to expand the moratorium to include southern California the mid Atlantic coast the Outer Banks and Bristol Bay. One main strategy involves lobbying in the appropriations committee to ensure that sales are not funded (see Action Access). WHALING MEETING SET FOR JUNE THE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUnity is preparing for the first full meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) held in the United States since 1971. The most important issues to be discussed in San Diego on June 12th are disputes over the so- called "research" whaling hunts conducted by Iceland and Japan. In San Diego, Japan will renew its ongoing efforts to preserve its whaling operations, this time by persuading delegates to change the IWC charter to include a new type of permissible whaling. The new classification would allow small-scale coastal whaling, which has similarities to the current minke whaling operations in Iceland and Norway. South Korea, Brazil and Peru might be tempted to restart whaling if the plan is approved Japan's ongoing effort to persuade the IWC to grant Japan's whalers the same IWC exemption afforded aboriginal subsistence whalers, such as Alaska's Eskimos, has failed over the last few years. Outside the IWC, Iceland is feeling the heat of the long-running international boycott of its fish products. And Japan was in the headlines when its Antarctic whaling ships crossed paths with the Greenpeace ship Gondwana. In a nine-day siege, inflatables from the Gondwana disrupted Japan's operations so completely that their "harvest" of minkes dropped from 40 in a ten-day period to just 14. In the course of its whale saving efforts, unfortunately, the Gondwana collided with a Japanese catcher boat. As a result, Japan's pro-whaling Institute for Cetacean Research has threatened a lawsuit, and government officials have accused Gondwana's crew of practicing "terrorism on the high seas." ICELANDIC WHALERS TAKE NATO BASE HOSTAGE IN JUNE 1987, THE INTERnational Whaling Commission (IWC) condemned Iceland's proposal to continue killing fin and sei whales as part of a "research" program. To avoid U.S. economic sanctions, Iceland called for a meeting with U.S. officials in Ottawa the following September. There, a deal was cut: the United States agreed to defer sanctions if Icelandic authorities agreed to modify their research program, reduce the number of whales killed, and "carry out the scientific recommendations" of the IWC's scientific committee. The next year, however, Iceland submitted the same proposal (which was immediately condemned by the IWC scientific committee) and vowed to continue its whale hunt. And, to the amazement of environmentalists, the U.S. Commerce Department refused to certify Iceland--no sanctions, nothing. What had happened during the year to gut the U.S. commitment to sanctions? The answer may lie in the White House. In the course of suing the Secretaries of Commerce and State to force them to comply with the law, a coalition of environmental groups obtained some interesting documents. One document revealed that State Department official James Wilkinson recommended that the chief U.S. scientist on the IWC scientific committee "be constructively neutral" at the 1988 meeting and said, "We hope that U.S. scientists will not take an active role in criticizing Iceland's program and will not actively work to persuade others to criticize or oppose the program." (U.S. State Department, May 6,1988). In another document, the State Department urged the new U.S. IWC Commissioner to consult the [State] Department on whaling issues which have a foreign policy dimension. This is particularly true in the coming months as we again deal with Iceland's scientific whaling program and the linkage to the U.S.-manned NATO base at Keflavik [Iceland]." (April 20,1988) These documents and other information obtained by Greenpeace suggest that the government may be weighing the fate of the whales against the desire to maintain good relations with Iceland because of the NATO base. By permitting this to happen, U.S. officials may themselves have violated provisions of U.S. law. Judge George H. Revercomb, who presides over the case in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, ruled in February 1989 that the State and Commerce Departments must answer questions as to whether national security issues were considered in the decision not to certify Iceland. He also ordered government officials to provide him with original copies of all the materials that they withheld under a claim of "state secrets" privilege. He will privately review them to determine whether this claim was justified. UPPING THE OZONE ANTE SOME OBSERVERS IN EUROPE this March wondered if they were in Las Vegas. It seemed the ante was upped almost daily as world leaders outdid each other in their efforts to appear to be taking the lead on protecting the ozone layer. Margaret Thatcher started off by inviting the nations of the world to a conference on the issue in London, but was upstaged when environmental ministers of the European Community (EC) announced they would reduce chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) production by 85 percent as soon as possible and try for 100 percent by the end of the century. By the time U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Director William Reilly arrived in London, he had in hand a pledge from President Bush to match the EC commitment. According to atmospheric scientists and the EPA, a 100 percent ban on CFCs is necessary just to stabilize the rate of ozone depletion. This is why Green peace's atmosphere campaign, launched this winter, is working for an immediate and total ban on ozone-depleting chemicals. Delegates at Thatcher's London conference were met by Greenpeace activists hanging a banner from the Houses of Parliament, which read, "100% NOW." Greenpeace urges that all government industry and international efforts on ozone protection be sped up and expanded to include many compounds not addressed by the current international agreement, the Montreal Protocol. Green peace also cautions that substitutes for CFCs should be safe. "There is significant risk that, in the race to find substitutes, producers will turn to alternatives that have environmental and human health risks of a different kind," said campaigner Erik Johnson. A number of the substitutes proposed by the chemical industry are them-selves toxic or carcinogenic. "However, relatively benign substitutes exist for all of the major uses of CFCs, and the public must insist on their implementation," Johnson added. TOXICS CAMPAIGN HITS THE ROAD THE GREENPEACE BUS AND crew lent its support to California communities fighting proposed hazardous waste incinerators, leaking toxic waste landfills and toxic contamination sites. From January 23rd to February 22nd, Greenpeace toxics campaigners aboard a 40-foot green and silver motor coach rallied citizens to the cause of toxics reduction and prevention. "Bus stops" included: ROSAMOND: Greenpeace and South Kern Residents Against Pollution (SKRAP) spread the word about a proposal to burn toxic waste in a CalMat cement kiln in nearby Mojave. Already furious because their community has 35 toxic contamination sites and a childhood cancer cluster (including ten deaths), more than 300 irate residents packed a community meeting to tell the company, "No Toxic Burn!" CalMat and the state government hoped to avoid conducting an environmental impact report (EIR) and a public hearing, but were forced to reverse themselves after the uproar. MARTINEZ: Greenpeace and SAVE US, a local citizens' group, kicked off an escalated campaign to defeat Stauffer Chemical Company's toxic waste incineration proposal. Stauffer wants to use its facility in Martinez to "import" and burn toxic waste from other industries. More than 200 people attended a rally to oppose the plan and call for toxics reduction throughout the state. CASMALIA: Fed up with ground water contamination, birth defects, rare blood diseases and government inaction, hundreds of citizens joined a February 11th rally and mock trial in front of the local elementary school. Citizens found the owners of the Casmalia Resources toxic waste dump and government officials guilty of poisoning their community. Afterwards, a 65-car motorcade snaked its way to the dump and blocked its entrance. Joined by Mothers of East Los Angeles, Casmalia residents chanted "If the government won't, the people will . . . close the toxic dump!" KETTLEMAN CITY: Over 400 people from this predominantly Mexican- American farm worker community were joined by fellow Californians in an unprecedented demonstration at the gates of the Chem Waste Management Kettleman Hills toxic dump. Sponsored by People for Clean Air and Water and Greenpeace, the rally was conducted primarily in Spanish. The large turnout dispelled Chem Waste's claim that the community supported their incinerator proposal. ACTION ACCESS WRITE FOR RIGHTS MALAYSIA's RAIN forests and rain forest activists are under siege from logging interests and corrupt government officials. More than 120 Dayaks, native Malaysians trying to retain rights to their land, have been arrested and await trial since November, while logging on their land continues. Rep. John Porter (R-IL) plans to reintroduce a resolution expressing concern for the destructive logging of tropical rain forests and the Malaysian government's disregard for the right of indigenous people to control the use of their forest land. It also calls for development of policies to ensure that U.S. timber imports are obtained from sustainable sources. Ask your Representative to support any future resolution concerning the promotion of the environment and human rights in Malaysia. Write The Honorable -- -------------------- U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515. UNDER FIRE VIDEO THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT on Central America (EPOCA) has completed an award winning video on the ecology and politics of Central America The half-hour presentation includes interviews with Central American activists and officials as well as U.S. environmentalists who describe the links between poverty, war and the destruction of the region's environment. $35.00 for individuals, $75.00 for institutions, rental for $25 and $55. Write EPOCA, 300 Broadway, Suite 28, San Francisco, CA 94133; 415-788-3666. ACT ON GLOBAL WARMING ACT WORLDWIDE ENERGY SAVINGS worth trillions of dollars per decade are possible with energy efficiency, conservation and development of renewable energy resources. These measures are also the key to curbing the production of greenhouse gases. Claudine Schneider's Global Warming Prevention Act (HR 1078) addresses these and other means of saving the atmosphere. This bill is one of the most important pieces of legislation in Washington this year. Key features include: reducing carbon dioxide emissions 20 percent by 2005; requiring the Department of Energy to pursue least-cost energy options (i.e. efficiency); establishing research centers for studying energy intensive industries; establishing higher fuel efficiency standards for new cars and trucks; and promoting reforestation and energy efficiency worldwide. The bill needs Co-sponsors. Urge your Representative to cosponsor H.R. 1078, the Global Warming Prevention Act, by writing The Honorable ------------, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington DC 20515. And please send a copy of your letter to Green peace, Atmosphere and Energy Program, Fort Mason Bldg. E, San Francisco, CA 94123. ICELAND BOYCOTT THE FIFTH NATIONAL DAY TO Protest Icelandic Whaling took place March 25th in more than 100 cities. Many thanks to those who organized and participated. If you would like to hold a demonstration in your community on June 12th or August 19th, contact Greenpeace in Washington, D.C., for an Icelandic Whaling Demonstration Kit. Help us thank Red Lobster for agreeing to join the Iceland boycott by writing Mr. Jeff O'Hara, President, 6770 Lake Ellenor Dr., Orlando, FL 32859. Please continue to protest purveyors of Icelandic fish, like Burger King, which even hosts a consumer hot line. Why not suggest that they stop buying Icelandic fish products because Iceland refuses to stop whaling? Call 1-800-937-1800. PAPER PROBLEMS IN INDONESIA SCOTT PAPER COMPANY OF Philadelphia is behind a plan to cut almost two million acres of rain forest in Indonesia to start a eucalyptus plantation, a chip mill and a paper mill. The joint venture, Astra Scott, has a huge concession that includes the traditional lands of four indigenous tribes who make their living through sustainable use of the rain forest. An international coalition of activists has been formed to help the local people remain self-sufficient, promote sustainable rain forest development alternatives and halt this ill-conceived project. Please help by writing to Phillip Lippincott, CEO, Scott Paper Company, 1 Scott Plaza, Philadelphia, PA 19113, and to their overseas branch, P.T. Astra Scott Cellulosa, Jalan Balikpanan no.15, Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. SAFE MILK FOR SCHOOLS ON FEBRUARY 13, GREENPEACE petitioned the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to stop allowing schools to use dioxin-laced chlorine-bleached milk cartons in federally funded school lunch programs. According to U.S. paper industry test results, bleached paper cartons are contaminated with dioxins, and a Canadian study has shown that these highly toxic compounds may migrate into the milk itself. Please write the Secretary of Agriculture and ask him to support Greenpeace's petition. Also, request that USDA conduct an Environmental Impact Statement to determine what effect contaminated cartons have on children's health and the environment. A letter to your congressional delegation asking them to encourage swift USDA action would help too. Write Hon. Clayton K. Yeutter, Secretary, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. 20250. DON'T DRILL PLEASE WRITE YOUR CONgressional delegation and urge them to support the congressional moratorium on appropriations for the U.S. Department of Interior's planned sale of leases for sites off the coasts of California, North Carolina, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Also appropriations for exploration on existing leases in Florida, Alaska's Bristol Bay and North Carolina's Outer Banks should be withheld. Oil drilling is no solution to our energy needs, and it is environmentally unsafe to extract and use (see Briefings). Write The Honorable -----------, U.S. Senate, Washington, DC 20510, and The Honorable ---------, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515. BAN WASTE TRADE DESPITE WIDESPREAD MEDIA attention, the U.S. Congress has not enacted legislation on the export of toxic waste by industrialized nations to the developing world. Greenpeace supports a ban on toxic waste exports or, at minimum, legislation requiring potential exporters to have first exhausted all available waste reduction options and to export only to facilities deemed "environmentally preferable" to those in the United States. Urge Congress not to support anything less, including the Waste Export Control Act unless it is strengthened by stricter controls. Write The Honorable --------- --, U.S. Senate, Washington, DC 20510, and The Honorable -----------, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515. WRITE WITH COUSTEAU IN CELEBRATION OF ITS 15TH anniversary, the Cousteau Society has presented gift memberships to the 170 leaders of the world's nations. It is now launching a letter-writing campaign to urge these leaders to "conserve resources and protect the earth for future generations." Write for a list of names and addresses and join in. World Leaders, Cousteau Society,930 West 21st Street, Norfolk, VA 23517. Paid for by Greenpeace Action. Greenpeace Action is a sister organization of Greenpeace USA that promotes environmental protection and disarmament through grassroots organizing, education and legislation.