TL: Global Warming Negotiations: Considerations for Africa SO: Greenpeace International (GP) DT: 1991 Keywords: atmosphere global warming climate change africa effects greenpeace reports gp carbon agreements / Introduction 1.Over thirty African states participated in the Second World Climate Conference (SWCC) held in Geneva from 29 October to 7 November 1990, playing an important role in the shaping of that meeting's two main outcomes. These were the Final Conference Statement of the Scientific and Technical Sessions, and the Ministerial Declaration. 2.Many African states also participated in the earlier proceedings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose first interim report was finalised in Sundsvall, Sweden on 31 August, 1990. 3.Together, the SWCC conclusions and the IPCC report provide a substantive scientific foundation for early and effective policy responses at the national, regional and international levels. 4.In the international negotiations on the first ever treaty to protect global climate, which resume next month in Geneva, the position adopted by Africa could play a major role in determining the success, or failure, of the outcome. Background 5.Member countries of the Organisation of African Unity need no reminding of the projected implications of global warming for their political, economic, cultural and ecological systems. Many African states, already victims of the vagaries of natural climate variation, are only too conscious of the consequences of additional climatic instability. 6.The dramatic implications of climate change for Africa have been documented in various scientific publications. Among the most recent and authoritative of these is the Report of the UNEP Regional Task Team on Implications of Climate Changes. The reports of the Task Teams for Eastern Africa and for West and Central Africa illustrate the risks which are posed for the African continent by changes in rainfall patterns, sea-level rise and associated climate impacts. 7.At the international level, African states have already made known their concern that industrialised states assume their responsibility, as the major producers of greenhouse gases, to take action first. (Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the main greenhouse gases). 8.In the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change (4 May 1990), participants called on industrialised nations "to adopt and implement policies which ... reduce emissions of greenhouse gases substantially by the year 2005". 9.At the November 1990 SWCC, a number of individual African states made eloquent calls for commitments by industrialised nations to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, and for substantial financial and technological assistance to enable developing countries to adopt domestic measures to combat the greenhouse problem. 10.As the Final Statement of the SWCC noted, "technically feasible and cost-effective opportunities exist to reduce CO2 emissions in all countries. Such opportunities for emissions reductions are sufficient to allow many industrialised countries to stabilise CO2 emissions from the energy sector and subsequently to reduce these emissions by at least 20% by 2005" (emphasis added). 11.Moreover, research by the West German Parliament's Enquiry on Protection of the Earth's Atmosphere has indicated that emission cuts of this magnitude can be made by industrialised nations, at no or even negative cost. 12.In this context it should be recalled, however, that the IPCC concluded that cuts in CO2 emissions of over 60% were required immediately to stabilise the present day atmospheric concentrations of the gas (i.e. to stabilise climate). 13.In recognition of the environmental and economic importance of reducing CO2 emissions, a growing number of industrialised states have made firm political commitments to reduce such emissions. Australia, Denmark, Germany and New Zealand are pledged to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 20% by 2005. The vast majority of OECD nations, including Japan and the EC, have made some form of commitment to stabilise their CO2 emissions by the end of the century. 14.Regrettably, the United States, the world's largest producer of CO2, has resisted making any similar commitment. 15.While none of the CO2 commitments made so far will be nearly enough to halt global warming, they reflect the change which scientific information and international debate can induce. However, as long as the United States maintains its opposition to CO2 cuts, it seems unlikely that other industrialised nations will consider or implement deeper national cuts. Possible African Initiatives 16.In the context of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) meetings to negotiate a framework climate convention and supporting protocols, a clear and concerted statement by the OAU nations would send a fresh and powerful signal of the importance attached to the climate issue by African nations. 17.It could, moreover : a) strengthen the negotiating position of the African group (and the developing world generally) in the INC negotiations on issues such as financial and technical assistance for developing nations; and b) at next month's meeting in Geneva, assist in increasing pressure on the U.S. Administration, and other Western governments, to accept the need for action to reduce CO2 emissions. 18.A statement by OAU nations might contain some of the following elements : a) a commitment to participate actively as a group in the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on a framework climate convention; b) a call to all industrialised nations to approach negotiations with the express aim of halting global warming; c) in this respect, an appeal to all industrialised nations to make national commitments to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 30% by the year 2000; and d) a direction to the OAU Secretariat to monitor the INC activities and to report regularly to Ministers on progress, with specific recommendations on possible further common positions. 19.To assist African states in considering the merits of adopting a collective position on the climate negotiations, Greenpeace is attaching for information a summary of its own policy position regarding the convention, and will be making available to the OAU Secretariat relevant background materials. 20.Within the limits of its resources, Greenpeace stands ready to respond to any requests for further information which may be required on the global warming issue. Global Warming: The Greenpeace Guide to a Global Climate Convention Global warming is possibly the single greatest threat ever to the future of life on the planet. Its ultimate consequences have been compared by eminent scientists at the 1988 Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere as "second only to a global nuclear war". Existing legal mechanisms and institutions are inadequate to control global warming. The need, however, for new mechanisms and institutions is not yet on the international agenda. While the global community has an array of complex regulations and well-staffed institutions governing international trade (GATT, UNCTAD), finance (the World Bank and International Monetary Fund), political issues (the United Nations General Assembly), and even to promote nuclear energy (the IAEA), there is no single body charged with protecting the atmospheric environment and the planet it surrounds. The limited existing international laws and institutions for protection of the global atmosphere were created before the "greenhouse" effect was understood. In fact, their inadequacies have enabled the present critical situation to develop. Regional treaty controls exist in North America and Europe to reduce ( but not eliminate) emissions of gases which contribute to acid rain. The Parties to the Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol, faced with continuing ozone depletion, have agreed to phase out some (but not all) ozone-depleting chemicals, many of which also have a significant heat-trapping capacity. Emissions of carbon dioxide - the most important of the greenhouse gases by virtue of its sheer volume and long atmospheric lifetime - remain unrecognized and unregulated by either treaty or customary international law. Many governments make much of the fact that negotiations on a "framework convention" on climate change are scheduled to begin in early 1991, with the objective of being concluded in mid-1992. Apart from the improbabilities of concluding a serious international agreement in less than eighteen months, there are strong indications that a number of Western nations lack the necessary political will to conclude an agreement which will arrest climate change. Greenpeace believes that the wholly new set of risks posed for the future of the Earth by global warming and other atmospheric problems demand a comprehensive reassessment of the legal rules and institutions needed to minimize the impact of the "greenhouse" effect. To assist interpretation of international debate on the contents of a global climate convention, Greenpeace has prepared the following 5-point check-list of basic principles which it considers must be contained in any effective agreement to halt global warming. Recognition of the Atmospheric Environment: The Earth's atmosphere must be recognised as an integral, unique and fragile part of the environment, requiring urgent protection. The atmosphere cannot be treated as a limitless dumping ground for largely invisible, hazardous waste. Precautionary Principle: Governments must undertake, as a matter of principle, to anticipate and prevent damage, rather than respond after the event. In effect, this means that actions likely to have a detrimental effect on the atmosphere should be controlled by law, and activities already causing damage subject to the most rapid possible suppression. Carbon Dioxide First: The agreement must contain a commitment to reduce global CO2 emissions, the single largest contributor to global warming. Other "greenhouse" gases (such as methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and their substitutes) should also be specifically identified in terms of their global warming potential, and be subject to reductions which reflect their respective global warming contributions. Reduction Targets: Stabilisation of all greenhouse gas emissions is not enough to prevent climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), immediate cuts in CO2 emissions of over 60% would be necessary to stabilise present atmospheric concentrations. To be effective, an international agreement must ensure that global emissions are reduced in line with the best available scientific counsel. Responsibility for reducing greenhouse emissions should be based on total current and historical production of such gases, on comparative levels of economic development and taking population into account. All assistance necessary should be provided to developing nations to assist their efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions to conform with global emission reduction targets and time-frames. UN Watch Dog: To ensure that the international community has all essential information required to assess the success of the convention and to make any future policy decisions required, the agreement should provide for the urgent establishment of an independent climate organisation under UN auspices. As a minimum, such a body would have responsibilities for: i) monitoring data on climate change and the composition of the atmosphere; ii) ensuring regular assessment, analysis and publication of such data, on a national and global basis; iii) ensuring review of national emission reduction programs; iv) promoting and conducting scientific research on global warming and on possible response measures; v) a policy review function, to ensure that the best available scientific, economic and technological advice on climate change is reflected in government policies; vi) an enforcement capacity.