TL: PLUGGING INTO THE SUN-KICKSTARTING THE SOLAR AGE IN CRETE SO: GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, (GP) DT: JUNE 1997 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. An overview of Solar Photovoltaics 3. Crete - The Solar-Fossil Fuel Battleground 4. The Solar Crete campaign 5. The world's biggest Solar Photovoltaic Power Station 6. The costs of Solar Photovoltaics 7. Europe's Solar opportunity 8. Existing Solar Photovoltaic Power Stations 9. Proposed large scale Photovoltaic Projects 10. The Japanese Solar Programme 11. The climate imperative: Europe's solar failure Appendix 1: Renewable energy for the Mediterranean Appendix 2: Plan for Solar Crete References Report reference number: ISBN 90-73361-37-0 1. INTRODUCTION On the Mediterranean island of Crete, an electricity revolution is occurring. As part of Greenpeace’s international campaign to stop the use of polluting fossil fuels and promote solar technologies, the construction of the world’s biggest solar photovoltaic power station is about to commence. The Greek Government is set to approve the first 5 Megawatts (MW) of a 50 MW solar power station At 50 Megawatts, it is 15 times larger than any other single photovoltaic installation in the world and more than 50 per cent of the entire 1996 global sales of photovoltaics, the cells which convert solar energy to electricity. 48 million solar cells will be used to provide 116 million kilowatt hours of electricity a year. That is enough power for almost 100,000 people or 30,000 homes. The cost of the 50MW will be 4.2 times less than the average global cost of grid-connected photovoltaics. Building the equivalent of just eight more solar power plants like the Crete proposal would be enough to create a $27 billion worldwide market for photovoltaic technology. THE TIME FOR A SWITCH TO SOLAR IS NOW. For Greece, it's proof that large scale solar energy projects can be constructed instead of building new fossil fuel energy sources. The solar power station is likely to make obsolete the proposed construction of an oil-fired power station. The Crete proposal has sparked discussions in other countries in the Mediterranean, North Africa and the Middle East to replicate the Crete solar power station. Within Europe, the Mediterranean region is expected to increase energy use more than four times in the next 25 years. Already today, 50 per cent of the region’s current energy supply could be met by solar and other renewable energy technologies. What is happening on Crete shows what can happen all over the world. By its very scale, the construction of this single solar power station smashes conventional orthodoxy which assumes that solar energy is far too costly, that it will only proceed incrementally and well into the distant future, and that we do not have the capacity to switch from burning fossil fuels. For the progress of photovoltaic technology, the Crete solar power station is a breakthrough of global importance. SOLAR COMES OF AGE After two faltering decades of development and neglect, the photovoltaics industry is showing that it can become a mainstream force. The time is right to unlock the inherent potential of solar photovoltaics, and create a multi-billion dollar, global industry. Solar photovoltaics can be deployed from the tropics to the ice caps. As an industry, it has the potential to develop as swiftly as the mobile phone or the laptop computer, heralding major changes in the electricity, construction and electronics sectors. CLIMATE THREAT, SOLAR SOLUTION Ironically, solar photovoltaics research took off 20 years ago in the midst of an oil crisis. As oil companies lost enthusiasm for developing strong solar markets, the environmental threat of climate change, caused by the burning of fossil fuels like oil, worsened. In December, 1997 world governments gather in Kyoto, Japan to agree limits on the emission of global warming gases - a successful outcome means that business-as-usual can no longer be an option. There is consensus that climate change is a major global environmental threat, yet the will to act is weak. Politicians prevaricate and ignore solar solutions, whilst fossil fuel vested interests block change. The construction of a solar power station on Crete is a potent symbol of hope that genuine change is possible and can trigger a dramatic shift in the fortunes of solar photovoltaics worldwide. Solar power represents the power to change, and Greenpeace is committed to catalysing such change. 2. AN OVERVIEW OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS "All the world's energy could be achieved by solar many thousands of times over" Roger Booth, Head of Renewable Energy Supply and Marketing, Shell February 1995 Photovoltaics enables sunlight to be transformed directly into electrical power. Certain materials naturally release electrons when they are exposed to light, and these electrons can then be harnessed to produce an electric current. Photovoltaic cells, also called solar cells, are made from the same semiconductor materials used in computer chips. All solar cells have at least two layers with a positive and negative charge. The electric field across the junction between the two layers causes electricity to flow when the semiconductor absorbs photons of light and releases electrons. Electrical contacts attached to the front and back of the cell enable it to become part of an electrical circuit. Over 98 per cent of solar cells are made with silicon. These cells are quite brittle, so several cells are wired together and enclosed in a rugged, protective casing called a module or panel. A group of these modules is called an array. Photovoltaic modules produce DC (Direct Current) electricity which can be converted to AC (Alternating Current). The amount of power produced is measured in watts (W), kilowatts (kW - thousands of watts) and megawatts (MW - millions of watts). The maximum power output of a photovoltaic array is typically expressed as kilowatts of peak capacity power (kWp) and power output over time is measured in kilowatt hours (kWh). On earth, the amount of solar energy available to generate photovoltaic power is about 10,000 times greater than total world energy use today. (1) Photovoltaics were first developed in the 1950s for space exploration, and terrestrial systems development begun in the early 1970s following the oil crisis. Photovoltaics have a number of critical advantages:- * Proven commercial technology * High reliability * Low operating costs * Minimal servicing * Best urban renewable energy source * No moving parts in operation * Modular design and mobile * Global applicability and multiple end uses * Easily mass produced and installed * Most effective power source for 2 billion people who don't have electricity At the end of 1996, there was 600MW of solar photovoltaics installed around the world. In 1995, all the world's solar photovoltaics generated 800 million kilowatt hours of electricity. The systems installed since 1988 are enough to generate electricity for 150,000 homes in the US.(2) In 1995, the annual world-wide photovoltaics market was worth around $1.2 billion. The industry has grown 300 per cent since 1985. The scale of future progress of solar photovoltaics will be driven by: * Parental corporate investment in photovoltaic subsidiaries * Government support and market delivery programmes * Electricity utility schemes for deployment * Financial mechanisms for developing country programmes * Environmental imperatives of climate change Against the background of climate change and corporate responsibility of the oil industry, the first point is of crucial significance. Photovoltaics investments are dwarfed by a continuing focus on the exploitation of further oil reserves. Consequently, their relative influence has declined over the years. As industry analysts Strategies Unlimited note,"Of the 15 petroleum companies that have been involved in photovoltaic development or commercial ventures over the last several years, one remains in the US, three in Europe and two in Japan. Later industry participants appear to come largely from the electronic component and materials sector" (3) They also go on to say that "The point is that parental decisions on investment play a fundamental role in shaping the future of PV business direction. Corporate parent and government decisions can lead to rapid scale-up, limited market impact through lack of increased investment, or departures from the industry." (4) WORLD PHOTOVOLTAIC SHIPMENTS: (TABLE) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 US 14.8 17.1 18.1 22.44 25.64 34.75 39.85 Japan 16.8 19.9 18.8 16.7 16.5 16.4 21.2 Europe 10.2 13.4 16.4 16.55 21.7 20.1 18.8 Rest of World 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.4 5.6 6.35 9.75 Total 35 42 46.5 55.4 57.9 60.09 69.44 77.60 89.60 Production of photovoltaic modules has more than doubled in seven years. European production declined (-6.5 per cent) as US (+14.7 per cent) and Japanese (+29.3 per cent) markets increased. The European PV industry "continues to be adversely affected by cuts in Common Market expenditures for PV and R&D programs". (7) One sign of how rapid progress can be achieved is that today a single building can increase the global market sales by over 1 per cent. The German company Pilkington will install 1MWp - 9,500m2 - the world's largest solar electric roof on the Academy of Further Education of the Ministry of Interior of Northrhine-Westfalia in Herne, Germany this year. It will deliver up to 900,000 kWh of photovoltaic electricity. 1997 is being viewed as a turning point in the fortunes of solar photovoltaics as global demand is "poised to soar" (8) Growth is projected at 15-30 per cent per annum. Conventional business-as-usual market forecasts to 2010 estimate 830MWp annual photovoltaic sales (including only 60MWp for on-grid central stations) resulting in world-wide sales of $8-10 billion. 3. CRETE - THE SOLAR-FOSSIL FUEL BATTLEGROUND "Crete is one of the most favourable and promising Greek regions for the development of renewable energies" Centre for Renewable Energy Sources, advisors to the Greek Government, March 1969 Crete represents a major opportunity for positive change in Europe. Electricity consumption is increasing and a proposed new oil-fired power station would cause a 50 per cent increase in CO2 emissions in Crete from the electricity sector. However, solar technologies could be deployed today that would not only halt further expansion of CO2 but replace existing polluting energy sources, and provide a more efficient electricity service to consumers. Greenpeace has proposed a practical plan for a fossil fuel-free Crete but the Greek state utility, the Public Power Corporation (PPC), opposes these options. Primary energy consumption in the Mediterranean has shown a major increase since the 1970s. It rose 70 per cent between 1971 and 1990, an average annual growth of 2.8 per cent. Most of this is met through imports. Electricity demand in the Mediterranean is projected to increase by a factor of 4.5 over the next 25 years. An EC conference on renewable energy in the Mediterranean held in 1995 in Athens outlined the multiple advantages of renewables - energy economic, social, employment, environment, trade and competitiveness, and industrial benefits (See Appendix 1). The report of the conference concluded that existing renewables could contribute 50 per cent of the region’s energy demand. EU Energy Commissioner Christos Papoutsis told the conference what could be achieved; "Greece could and should be an example, a country for demonstration of how renewables can play a serious role in the Mediterranean. Renewables...are the core vision for the development of the Mediterranean" ELECTRICITY PROBLEMS IN CRETE Economic growth is based significantly on tourism and urbanisation. This has resulted in increasing energy demand with a seasonal character, high peaks and negative effects on an electricity system operating at safety limits. Conventional fossil fuel electricity is failing to meet demand, and the annual rate of increase of electricity supply is 7 per cent, whereas nationally it is 3.5 per cent. Greece has one of the fastest growing energy demands in the Mediterranean. The residential and services sectors represent the two highest consumption increases with annual rates of increase of 6.5 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. Electricity consumption in Crete is 4.5 times higher in 1994 than in 1975. Rising demand and the inadequacy of the existing electricity network grid have resulted in disruptions to the regular service. The Association of Industries and Commerce is concerned about the future electricity supply as the electrical grid causes many problems and prohibits further development. The increase in energy demand and particularly electricity cause power inefficiency problems requiring expensive solutions to cope with peak power loads. Costs can reach 50 GRD (19 US cents)/kWh. The increase in electricity consumption coexists with an increasing maximum load. The corresponding annual rate is about 7 per cent. To deal with these high loads, the PPC overuses gas turbines. Therefore, energy production costs increase because gas turbines have a significant fuel cost compared to the mean production of the systems. FOSSIL FUEL EXPANSION CO2 emissions from the electricity sector in Crete are currently 1.3 million tonnes per year. The electrical generation system on Crete is made up of 18 fossil fuel power units (steam electric, diesel electric, combined cycle and gas turbines), at two power stations - in Linoperamata, and Chania regions. Their total installed capacity is 402MW - 99.6per cent of total net electricity on the island. Some hydro and wind electric units contribute 7.7MW. The PPC, forecasts that installed electrical capacity will increase 95 per cent to 785MW by 2005. The system is rather centralised, and other structural disadvantages are the high losses due to lengths of medium voltage lines. Efficiencies are poor, down to 16 per cent in some cases. The existing conventional back-up units hardly cover the maximum loads. The PPC has proposed two main policies for dealing with the electricity problem: 1. Construction of a new oil-fired power station in the Atherinolakkos area; and 2. Connection to the mainland grid by a submarine cable. There is a problem with a mainland cable due to strong undersea streams, and the high probability of earthquakes. The construction of a new power plant would increase Crete's CO2 emissions from the electricity sector by 630,000 tonnes per year. This is a 50 per cent increase. Upgrading the Chania power station, using two gas turbines, is also proposed. This will increase CO2 emissions by 120,000 tonnes per year. The proposed new 150MW power station on Crete, and upgrading of the current power station with gas turbines, would account for an increase of 750,000 tonnes of CO2. That is a 60 per cent increase. Both schemes face vigorous local opposition. The PPC has yet to submit a proposal for the new power station in Atherinolakkos and local opposition is strong. Riot police at the site have stopped protesters opposing the PPC doing preliminary site visits. The upgrading of the Chania power station also faces local protests. The turbines are currently stored at the Heraklion power station. GREEK STATE UTILITY BLOCKS SOLAR SOLUTIONS The PPC's attitude on Crete is symptomatic of its wider opposition to renewables. As has been noted in a report to the Government earlier this year: "The Public Power Corporation (PPC) favours actions based mainly on conventional technologies, as its previous record points to a tendency to even minimal risk taking in introducing innovative technologies." (10) Nationally, the PPC is responsible for 50 per cent of the country’s CO2 emissions - over 40 million tonnes per annum. The PPC has consistently oppose new forms of renewable energy. In 1994, out of the PPC's total investment of US$720 million, only 0.5 per cent was spent on renewables - one in every $200. Further, the PPC has spent just $11.2 million out of the small designated renewables budget of $46 million for 1993-5. Out of 9,200 MW of installed capacity in Greece, only 69MW are renewables, mainly wind and small hydro. But even these are not used appropriately. Two of the country's largest wind farms at Marmari near Athens and Sitia on Crete stayed idle for three years due to legal disputes over maintenance. According to the state-owned Greek Centre for Renewable Energy Source wind potential in Greece is amongst the highest in Europe. An internal PPC document, obtained by Greenpeace, has shown that the cost of the proposed new power station is more expensive than construction of pumped storage facilities, which eliminate the need for any new fossil fuel capacity. The estimated cost of the proposed power station is US$ 225-300 million, whereas pumped storage would cost US$207-225 million. In a recent paper written by a PPC employee from one of Crete’s power stations, it was stated that if a pumped storage system was in operation on Crete in 1995, fuel savings of US$16.5 million would be achieved. The paper says the natural environment of Crete is "suitable for the development of PSS (Pumped Storage System) which is technically feasible and provides low technical risk" and that the implementation of PSS is "highly attractive and profitable". 4. THE SOLAR CRETE CAMPAIGN "The fight between the Greek Public Power Corporation and Greenpeace is the fight of oil against sun and wind. It is the fight of the conservative energy status quo against the future, against renewable energy" METRO Magazine Athens, November 1996 October 1995 Greenpeace begins the Solar Crete campaign to halt the construction of a new oil-fired power station and increase the use of solar energy resources. November 95-March 96 Greenpeace holds a number of meetings in Crete with politicians, local authorities, companies interested in investing, and local communities opposing the oil-fired power station. April 1996 Greenpeace takes action at the Ministry of Development (Energy). Activists at the Ministry HQ entrance replace light bulbs with energy efficient CFLs, and demand a nationwide energy efficiency programme. The Minister announces the launch of a pilot project to start on Crete in June, and promises that the scheme will become nationwide, with free CFLs offered to small Aegean islands. June 1996 The PPC starts the light bulb replacement project in Crete. Although badly designed, 45,000 light bulbs are replaced in the first five months and the PPC promises to continue and expand the project. June 1996 Amoco/Enron Solar, one of the companies invited by Greenpeace to consider investing in solar power on Crete, presents a proposal to the government for a 50MW photovoltaic power station on the island. The proposal also raises the option of a manufacturing facility in Greece. The Government response is neutral. June/July 1996 Cyrus, the world's largest mobile solar generator owned by Greenpeace tours Crete to spread the solar message. Thousands of people visit the truck and exhibition. Eleven solar-powered concerts are held, and Cyrus powers the first ever solar-powered TV and radio broadcasts in Greece. Greenpeace presents the Solar Crete proposal - to make the island totally powered by renewables and energy efficiency technologies. The PPC reacts by saying photovoltaics are neither competitive nor feasible, and supports the construction of the new oil-fired power station. September 1996 Greenpeace launches a joint project with the Hotel Association of Crete asking for an expansion of the energy efficiency light bulbs project. Greenpeace invites the world's solar companies to participate in a bid to install photovoltaics systems nationwide as part of a Government scheme. October 1996 Greenpeace takes action against the PPC HQ accusing them of deliberately blocking renewables. A scandal from 1995 is exposed again where wind turbine blades are found on a rubbish tip and two wind parks of 10MW remained idle for three years. The PPC promises to reopen the wind parks in 1997. October-November 1996 The Greenpeace ship MV Arctic Sunrise sails to Crete where activists scale the oil-fired power station to demand a switch to solar power. The next day Greenpeace installs a solar photovoltaic system at a school in Goudouras, the proposed site of the new oil-fired power station. It is the first solar-powered school in Greece. December 1996 Greenpeace presents a photovoltaic guide for houses. More than 500 consumers express interest to install solar systems but support is not yet available from the Greek Government. February 1997 Greenpeace reveals a tax scandal and helps force legislation which offers tax deductions for renewables that reduces their costs by 30 per cent. March 1997 Following the Greenpeace invitation, IWECO Solar, a newly formed Greek subsidiary of Enron, presents a proposal for the first 5MW of a 50MW solar photovoltaic power station on Crete. The company also starts contacting government officials in other countries in the Mediterranean and the broader Middle East and North Africa area, and is examining the potential for a photovoltaic manufacturing facility in Greece. April 1997 Greenpeace presents a proposal for a 1,000 roofs project to the Greek Government by the end of 1998, which aims to give incentives to hundreds of interested citizens. May 1997 Decision on the first 5MW tranche to be taken. 5. THE WORLD'S BIGGEST SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER STATION "If firms interested in promoting the central generation approach are willing to take the risk and are able to finance theconstruction of 100MWp scale PV manufacturing plants to obtain greater economies of scale.....estimated costs could be substantially lower" Canadian Government report on the world photovoltaic industry, June 1996 As part of the Solar Crete campaign, Greenpeace invited Enron Solar to visit Greece to make formal proposals to develop a solar photovoltaic power station on the island. In June 1996 Enron Solar submitted a proposal to the Greek Government to build a 50MW solar photovoltaic power station on Crete.(12) The formal acceptance of the first 5MW tranche is set to be agreed by the Government in May. Following acceptance, it would take only 15 months to construct the first tranche. The solar power station "can help Greece meet its commitment to work toward the stabilisation of global CO2 emissions and establish Greece as European leader in the commercial development of solar power". At 50 Megawatts, it is 15 times larger than any other single photovoltaic installation in the world. This power station represents more than 50 per cent of the entire 1996 global sales of photovoltaics, and over 8% of the entire amount of photovoltaics currently in operation in the world. At an installed cost of $2.40/Wp for 50MW, it is the lowest price on record, 4.2 times less than the average global cost of grid-connected photovoltaics. The solar power station will be comprised of 48.6 million solar cellsi on 528,000 solar modules to provide an estimated 116 million kWh of electricity. That's enough power for almost 100,000 people. The annual load profile of solar electricity generated parallels Crete's typical electricity demand. The first 5MW tranche is set to be built in the Municipality of Mires, near Heraklion. The site is considered "exceptional from a technical point of view as it is of sufficient magnitude, bears a slight southward inclination and is in the direct vicinity of the PPC Mires substation. In addition, the adjacent municipal waste deposit site makes the site of little value for other land uses".(13) The 50MW power station is configured in 50 x 1,000kW sections of polycrystalline solar panels. 5MW is to be installed in 1998, and 9MW a year thereafter until completion in 2003. Commercial operation will begin in early 1999, under a long term contract to sell power to the state electricity utility, the PPC. It will have an economic life of 30 years and approximately 49 per cent of the funding is expected to be provided by the Greek Government and EU grants. The total capital cost for 50MW is estimated at $120 million, and $2 million a year operating costs. The total installed costs for 50MW are given as $2.40/Wp, and the total installed costs for the 5MW tranche are $3.55/Wp. The solar power station: "provides the potential for the development of a new type of tourism in Crete with all the side benefits this might have on the local economic life and development. It will bring in advanced technology to Greece and the local community. The knowledge to operate, maintain and service this technology will not only facilitate jobs but will allow for specialised skills to be developed in a highly technical field. As awareness of the capabilities of the photovoltaics increases, additional markets for grid-connected systems, rooftop systems and remote applications will emerge that will justify further investment in Greece in manufacturing". As the world's first major megawatt-sized photovoltaic installation, the experience and knowledge gained will make it far easier and even cheaper to build other similar power stations. The consequent manufacturing capacity needed to meet increased demand does not present a problem. According to Siemens Solar: "100MWp per year factories are conceivable based on extensions of today's technologies".(14) As a result of the Greenpeace campaign, the company is also discussing other proposals throughout the Mediterranean, North Africa and Middle East regions. This summer Greenpeace embarks on a Solar campaign tour of the Mediterranean with its ship the MV Sirius. 6. THE COSTS OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS "The basic commercialisation problem PV technology has faced for 20 years markets will explode when module costs decline, but module costs can't decline much until the market grows much larger" PV Insider's Report, May 1996 From 1972 to 1992, photovoltaic module costs have dropped one hundred fold.(15) Due to its scale,the Crete 50MW solar power station is, in a single stroke, a significant breakthrough on current costs. It is: * much cheaper today than global estimates of the cost of a solar power station in the year 2010 * 4.2 times less than the current average global cost of grid-connected photovoltaics * 5.8 times less than the world's most sophisticated photovoltaics programme in Japan Conventional forecasting tends to be based on incremental changes, and assumes that costs will not, or are not able to reach competitive points for a number of years. Solar photovoltaics is already the most cost effective energy source for most of the world's population without access to electricity, yet the barrier is one of institutional blockages, not price inferiority. Traditional forecasts also assume the market grows at business-as-usual rates without any dynamic change. For example, the Chairman of Shell estimates that PV will not become fully competitive with conventional power generation until the year 2015.(16) The disruptive impact of the Crete power station to business-as-usual wisdom by 'dynamically reducing installation costs' shows that costs are no longer a barrier to deployment of large scale photovoltaics. The barrier is the failure to create real markets and the political and industrial support for such implementation. (Put these figures in a graphic, and reference the sentence below the graphics): The cost of the 50MW solar power station is given as $2.40/Wp The cost of the 5MW first tranche for Crete is $3.55/Wp In 1996 , the average system cost (solar modules, plus other equipment and installation) for the Japanese solar programme is $14/Wp. 1996- an average of 11 utility PV systems is more than $10/Wp installed 1996 - the average cost of solar photovoltaics is $15/Wp, for all applications - stand alone, consumer, residential and industrial. The California utility SMUD has a solar programme in 1996 with some of the lowest costs for installed PV :- 80+ residential homes:- $5.98/Wp PV substation 160kW - $6.16/Wp The lowest cost of PV for homes have been achieved in 1996 - $5.31/Wp 1994 - the final cost of the 3.3MW Italian Power station is estimated to be $8/Wp The California Hedge substation of four solar fields totalling 524kW was installed at a cost of $6.68-7.70/Wp over the period 1993-96 Cost projections: (put these in the table as well as 96 figures) Typical PV systems costs (put these is a table) 1995 2010(projected)*: Off grid cottage 150Wp $18.67/Wp 12.00 Off grid VHF telecom 300Wp $16.33/Wp 10.67 On grid distributed 2kWp $7.05/Wp 3.35 On grid central 1MWp $7.40/Wp 4.15 *Canadian Government projections 15 years into the future using a conservative business-as-usual scenario based on estimates prepared by numerous PV industry experts and government R&D programmes. The report states that: "Predicting future costs is a difficult and often inaccurate task" and that costs could be substantially lower "if firms interested in promoting the central generation approach are willing to take the risk and are able to finance the construction of 100MWp scale PV manufacturing plants to obtain greater economies of scale....However it is not clear at this point if this will really happen" Consequences of cost changes ' a lot will depend on how fast Amoco/Enron and others will be on line to bring the costs down. I think the growth can be astronomical in the following five years because you can start replicating these 10MWp, 20MWp plants and further driving costs down. We feel the market is there for PV with module prices getting down under $2' (21) Thomas Surek, US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, June 1996 It is commonly accepted by the US Utility Photovoltaic Group (UPVG) and others that $3/Wp is a crucial turning point that will create a self-sustainingii domestic market of 9,000 MW per annum (22) which in turn creates the launch pad for a vast market. The Chairman of UPVG, Andrew Vesey estimates that when $3/Wp price is attained, it could launch a $27 billion market (23). What is of great significance is how we reach that point of $3/Wp. The UPVG estimates that 'purchases upward to 400MW may be required before costs reach the break-even point'. Therefore, if the equivalent in MW size of only eight Crete solar power stations are constructed, it would create a $27 billion market for photovoltaics. The Solar Energy Industries Association also estimates that 350-500MW of purchase is needed before achieving 'sustained markets requiring no artificial market support' (24) The range of estimates translates into total 'subsidies' of $500 million before the cost gap is plugged. Allen Barnett, President of US photovoltaic company Astropower estimates that if installed costs can be reduced to $2.50/Wp, photovoltaics can reach a $100 billion market.(25) US DOE Director for Photovoltaics James Rannels says: 'By our calculations, PV is cost-effective now in five states'(26) The DOE sponsored report released in 1996 (27) showed that PV for residential use is economic in 19 US states (mainly in the south west and north east) when priced at $3-4/Wp and that PV is economic in five states at a cost of $4/Wp and above (Hawaii, California, Arizona, New York, Massachusetts - not all high sunshine states). The report concluded: 'there are cost-effective grid-connected PV application today', and that 'policy instruments such as buy down of loan interest and capital cost are effective mechanisms for reaching cost effectiveness in the top US markets'. (28) The US DOE estimates that with an industry manufacturing capacity of 200MW per annum, module costs will go under $2/Wp by 2000. Module costs were $8/Wp in 1992 and $4.10/Wp in 1996.(29) (Module costs are approximately 50 per cent of the overall solar installation(30)). THE GREENPEACE GERMANY SOLAR MARKET CAMPAIGN The Crete campaign is the second concerted Greenpeace push to intervene in the market for solar photovoltaics. In November 1995, sparked by the move of the last German photovoltaic producer ASE to abandon domestic production, Greenpeace Germany began its solar campaign. A report was commissioned from Ludwig-Bölkow (31) to show that costs could be reduced with an increase in manufacturing capacity. Greenpeace embarked on a consumer campaign to challenge the myth that there was no domestic market, and began a nationwide, mobile 'Cyrus' solar demonstration house tour; sent over 40,000 leaflets mailed out to public enquires; powered radio station broadcasts and demonstrated at political and utility headquarters to demand support for the photovoltaic industry. Within four months, 4,000 people expressed an interest to buy a solar home system, representing a purchase interest of 100 million DM. Over 20 cities and communities in Germany offered plant sites for new domestic manufacturing. As a result of the consumer demand, Greenpeace issued a public bid for tender, where the costs of a 2kW solar home system was reduced by 40 per cent in one year. Around 400 newspaper stories and 69 TV reports later, analysis of the impact of the campaign was undertaken by the Fraunhofer Institute in December 1996.(32) Their analysis revealed that the approved market increased 300 per cent to 6MW, making Germany the fourth largest purchaser in the world for that year. However, it also showed that the market could have reached 9MW, 10 per cent of global annual sales, but floundered on government red tape. 7. EUROPE'S SOLAR OPPORTUNITY "Even considering only the existing technologies, Renewable Energy Sources could contribute 50 per cent of the primary energy demand in the Mediterranean basin" European Commission Sponsored conference on renewables in the Mediterranean, November 1995 The European Union (EU) is already aware of the huge potential that solar photovoltaics could play throughout Europe as a result of a 450-page report delivered last year.(34) In 1990, the area of rooftops on houses, industrial buildings and offices which could be used to produce grid-connected solar electricity was 3,596km2. This huge solar potential amounts to installing an average of only 9.5 square metres of solar panels per person in Europe. The total capacity resulting would be 450,000MW, providing 16.3 per cent of Europe's electricity needs in 1990 (360 million MWh/annum, about 1,000 kWh/annum per person). In 2010, the total potential is 618,000MW (500 million MWh/annum). Yet the cumulative total of photovoltaics installed in Europe in 1994 was approximately 70MW. Table: Today's photovoltaic rooftop potential measured as per cent of final electricity consumption Portugal 42.4 per cent Greece 29.8 Italy 24.5 Spain 24.2 Switzerland 23.8 Austria 18.9 France 18.3 Denmark 15.8 Germany 15.5 Ireland 15.1 UK 12.3 Netherlands 12.2 Belgium 11.5 Despite the analysis of the potential resource, recommendations to the EU has failed to highlight the potential of photovoltaic power stations - it is viewed as a distant option for beyond 2010: "In the longer term, multi-megawatt power plants will be a viable option for large scale electricity generation in southern European states". (35) The report's recommendations for the EU are for a proposed programme of 50MWp, throughout Europe, including only 100MWp for large scale power plants. Greenpeace's campaign in Crete to construct a 50MW solar power station would realise 50 per cent of the large power plants at a single stroke. PHOTOVOLTAICS AND JOBS The employment benefits from the growth of the PV industry are significant. In Europe, high growth rates of the photovoltaic market could result in the creation of up to 294,000 jobs by 2010. Entirely new jobs are created which are well distributed over regions. The jobs are continuous and non-seasonal and develop in those areas which most need economic stimulation. Table: Photovoltaic market growth and employment scenarios to the year 2010 World PV market growth rate (now to 2010) 15 20 25 30 35 annual shipments MW/annum (world) 630 1,240 2,380 4,460 8,160 cumulative installed PV (world) 3,900 6,300 10,200 16,700 27,300 PV sector employment (world) 152,000 261,000 453,000 783,000 1,345,000 cumulative installed PV (Europe)* 1,200 2,000 3,300 5,3008,700 PV sector employment (Europe) 32,000 56,000 98,000 170,000 294,000 *Assumes 32 per cent of capacity installed in Europe The US Department of Environment (DOE) says: "Photovoltaics is a high technology that , as a domestic industry, could create or support as many as 3,800 well-paying jobs for every $100 million worth of PV sales".(36) 8. EXISTING SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER STATIONS Italy - 3.3MW station The 3.3 MW power station at Serre in Italy, is currently the largest photovoltaic power station in the world. (37) The state utility ENEL started polling in 1990, procurement of materials started in 1992 and the building was completed in December 1994. The station is divided into 10 x 330kW sub fields. It covers a land area of 70,000m2 with 32,000 m2 for modules. Annual energy production is 4,600 MWh. The photovoltaic modules have 32 or 72 cells. There are 46,000 modules equivalent to 2.6 million individual solar cells. The final cost is estimated to be $8/Wp. Estimates for replication are given at $6.74/Wp however Natale Caridi of ENEL has also estimated that $9/Wp as the cost for future multi-megawatt power stations. (38) California - 2.2MW and 0.5MW stations This is a 2 MW photovoltaic power station completed in 1986, with an additional 214kW added in 1995. No costs have been cited for this project, but the Hedge substation of four separate fields totalling 524kW was installed at a cost of $6.68-7.70/Wp over the period 1993-96. (39) These project are part of Sacramento Municipal Utility District's programme to install 10MW of grid-connected PV by 2002, and to make photovoltaics "cost effective in these applications by about the year 2000". 9. PROPOSED LARGE SCALE PHOTOVOLTAIC PROJECTS "These systems alone, again, if built as planned, could prove the long held adage that economies-of-scale willlead to sharply lower module costs, which in turn will produce vastly larger markets for PV" (40) PV Insider's Report, May 1996 This is a summary of some other proposals for multi-megawatt photovoltaic power projects. None of them are formally agreed and face various difficulties in achieving final agreement. But they show that there are opportunities for significant expansion, and what is missing is the political and corporate decisions to make them happen. 75-200 MW in Arizona The Arizona Corporation Commission has voted to approve rules stipulating that from a four-year period beginning in 1999, 0.5 per cent of power (up to 1 per cent by 2001) must come from a photovoltaic or thermal source. At the minimum requirement, this figure represents 75-200MW of utility photovoltaics. The upper range of 200MW is "considered realistic, or even conservative". Observers believe that Arizona’s action "could lead other state utility regulatory bodies to adopt similar renewable energy mandates" and that if approved, this project is likely to be "regarded in the future as a landmark in PV technology commercialisation worldwide".(41) 50MW in California Four US solar energy groups have proposed a $96 million, six-year plan to deploy 50MW of PV creating 20,000 grid-connected solar systems with a goal of $3/Wp.(42) 4MW in Hawaii Amoco/Enron is "in final negotiations" with Hawaiian Electric to build a 4MW PV Power station in 1997.(43) The cost is estimated to be $2.03/Wp.(44) 100MW India Sun Source of India and Energen International Amoco/Enron solar have obtained letters of intent for a power purchase agreement with the State of Rajasthan in north west India for two projects of up to 50MW. The plan is modelled on the Solar Enterprise Zone in Nevada. The entire capacity of 50MW is set to be installed by 2002, with Amoco/Enron installing 4.6MW this year and 6.3 per year, subsequently.(45) 220MW Arizona The Corporation for Solar Technology and Renewable Resources is attempting to negotiate contracts with the four different companies involved, but no deal has yet been signed. Amoco/Enron Solar is negotiating for a 10MW plant, with construction scheduled to begin in 1998.(46) The then Energy Secretary Hazel O’Leary commented that "these projects and the projects that will surely follow represent a giant step in solar commercialisation. It is comparable to the first commercial steps in semiconductors that resulted in US global leadership and the vast industry we call silicon valley".(47) 10. THE JAPANESE SOLAR PROGRAMME "The dominance of the US, Japan and Germany in the development of PV technology and markets, is in large part, due to the relatively substained government support provided" Overview of the worldwide PV industry, June 1996 In a country where full-page advertisements for solar homes appear in the national newspapers next to advertisements for cars, computers and televisions, Japan provides an early preview of how government, industry and the public can collaborate to create self-sustaining solar markets. 1997 is recognised as a "turning point that will decide whether Japan's PV sector can grow into an actual industry".(48) The 1997 photovoltaics programme proposed by the Ministry of International trade and Industry (MITI) represents a 51 per cent increase from 1996 - from 13.37 billion Yen to 20.2 billion yen ($163 million). The emphasis is on a domestic support programme for solar homes. The table lists the implementation programme of the "70,000 roofs programme". The number of applications to the programme has grown tenfold in the last five years, resulting in only a 17 per cent approval rate:- 83 per cent of applicants - 9,000 people were turned down. As with all solar programmes in the world, it is very popular. The unmet demand of FY 1996 represents 36MW. The increasing demand stimulated by the government support is pushing companies to expand. The Nikkei Weekly reports that "Japanese electrical-appliance manufacturers are lining up to get a share of the fast-developing market for residential solar power generation systems". The main companies are Kyocera Corp., Sanyo Electric Co, Sharp Corp, Matsushita Battery Industrial Co and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (49) Residential sales are expected to reach 100 billion Yen (US$881 million) by 2000. Kyocera increased production by 50 per cent to 9MW in 1996, will double production to 25MW per year and plans annual production capacity of 60MW by 2000. The company is investing 15 billion yen (about US $122 million) in cell production.(50) It has formed its own PV distribution and system integration company opening 20 sales offices with plans to open 100 across the country by 2000, and increase employees to 2,500. Kyocera estimates that world demand will be 250MW per year by the year 2000, with 140MW in Japan. (51) Sharp has forged an alliance with Fuji Bank to offer loans to home owners. According to Strategies Unlimited, "One of the key political drivers behind the [Japanese] residential programmes is the upcoming Global Climate Change Conference to be held in Kyoto in December 1997" (52) "the conference could generate a heightened level of media coverage that can help educate markets on PV applications and accelerate commercialisation". (53) It must be recognised that the Japanese programme is insufficient to realise the true potential of photovoltaics. At the cost of $130 million a year, it is a fraction of the money Japanese and nearly all other governments spend on subsidising and supporting fossil fuels and nuclear energy. If these subsidies to pollution were abandoned and channelled into solar technologies, the current Japanese photovoltaic programme could be replicated and expanded all over the world with no fiscal disbenefit. 11. THE CLIMATE IMPERATIVE: EUROPE'S SOLAR FAILURE In December 1997, world governments meet in Japan to agree limits on the emissions of greenhouses gases. The European Union (EU) will have a profound influence on these negotiations. Within the EU, ministers already agree climate change is a serious problem requiring urgent political attention. Yet emissions are increasing, and there is a gap between words and action. The June 1996 European Council recognised that "significant overall reductions" of greenhouse gas emissions are required after the year 2000. A month later, EU ministers, along with another 120 nations, agreed a "Ministerial Declaration" at the second annual top level meeting of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). They agreed that the latest science conclusions: "provide a scientific basis for urgently strengthening action at the global, regional and national levels...to limit and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases." and that "The projected changes in climate will result in significant, often adverse impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors, including food supply and water resources, and on human health." They said a key part of the response should be "quantified legally binding objectives for emissions limitations and significant overall reductions within specified timeframes...of greenhouse gas emissions". (56) The gap between words and action EU credibility at stake: While the EU has taken a high profile, with respect to a progressive position on climate change in the international negotiations, there is an increasing gap between its words and its actions. Worldwide greenhouse gas reduction targets will be negotiated at the UN Climate Conference in Japan in December 1997. While the March Environment Council agreed a negotiating position of 15 per cent CO2 reduction by 2010, the EU, as yet, has made no commitment to a target for 2005. Significant doubt exists as to whether the EU will even meet the current stabilisation commitment in the absence of further action by member states and the EU as a whole. EU Commission estimates indicate emissions may be 5 per cent higher in 2000 over 1990 levels. Emissions escalate post 2000: After 2000, the EU is in increasing trouble from escalating CO2 emissions. Without further action, EU and International Energy Agency (IEA) calculations predict that by 2010, CO2 emissions will increase by 9-17 per cent. More polluting power stations: The EU's Energy Directorate predicts that 456,00MWp of new or replacement electric generating capacity will be needed by 2020 under business as usual. Less than 1 per cent of the projected 543 billion ECU cost of this new power generation would be spent on renewable energy sources. This would mean a 30 per cent overall increase of 1990 electricity generating capacity, with fossil fuel emissions from Europe increasing by 20 per cent. Inadequate renewables commitment: Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) highlighted the current EU failure to push renewables forward in the EU in a July, 1996 resolution. This called for renewables to meet 15 per cent of the EU energy mix by 2010, meet an 840 million ECU budget by 1998 and provide more money for research and development support programmes. The EU's alternative energy programme ALTENER has set a more conservative goal to increase the use of renewable energy sources in the EU to 8 per cent by 2005. Inadequate funding: The current Altener budget is just 40 million ECU from 1993-97. This is a fraction of the 100 billion ECU going to agriculture, structural and cohesion funds. There is a significant potential for the energy related aspects of this funding to prioritise renewables and energy efficiency projects Direct subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear in the EU are approximately $15 billion a year. Collective solutions: It is in the interests of the EU's collective approach to greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that countries like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal with rapidly rising emissions are at the centre of the EU's solar renewable energy efforts. APPENDIX 1: RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN Energy and economic benefits: The economic benefits of RES (Renewable Energy Sources) are potentially very significant through: supporting new industrial development, offering a greater diversity of supply using local resources rather than imports and complementing to the energy saving policies. Further, their speed of construction and size offers other benefits (construction time is reduced often up to one fifth or even one-tenth of the time needed for the construction of conventional energy projects.) RES might also increase tourism, improving its quality in terms of infrastructures and services, and lower pollution levels. RES can help implement the concept of 'sustainable development', one of the key objectives of the European Union. Social benefits: The use of local resources would aid the regional development with the EU-Mediterranean countries and Third Med Countries. (e.g. through agricultural stimulus). In addition, greater social cohesion can be obtained by using energy sources which have a limited local impact and which support the improvement of local development. The use of renewable energy technologies would also reduce the potential risks to health from conventional energy sources. Employment benefits: Increased commercialisation of RETs (Renewable Energy Technologies) can lead to significant increases in employment. It is estimated that 400,000 jobs could be created if 15 per cent substitution of primary energy by renewables occurs in the EU. The RE industry currently employs some 110,000 people in the EU, in some mainly small to medium size enterprises, with a labour force more often composed of highly skilled technical employees. Environmental benefits: RES can address the climate change issue by helping stabilise carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases. Furthermore RES, in displacing conventional fossil fuelled plants, can lead to the reduction of emissions of other pollutants, for example sulphur and nitrogen oxides which contribute to acid rain. Trade and competitiveness: RETs rely on local and national resources, therefore reducing the need for imports and the exposure to international-geopolitical instability, and thus contributing to security of energy supply. Worldwide markets for renewable energy technologies are rapidly emerging and expanding with an estimated direct turnover of 40 billion ECU each year. 16 billion ECU of this will come from the European Union. A significant proportion of this sum is in the Mediterranean region. The development of an indigenous RET industry is also important from the context of the Third Med Countries, creating benefits for their economies and for employment. Industrial co-operation: RETs are often indicated as the most 'appropriate' way to meet energy requirements in countries such as the TMCs (Third Mediterranean Countries, i.e. non-EU). They operate with a local dimension, using local resources and often engaging local companies. Significant opportunities are available for increasing industrial co-operation between EU and TMC industries. (Source: Background document for the conference on renewable energies for the Mediterranean area, Athens, 9-11 November 1995) APPENDIX 2: THE GREENPEACE PLAN FOR A SOLAR CRETE The theoretical solar potential in Crete is vast: 44,400,000 TJ/year or 12,427 TWh per year. For Greece in 1990, the potential installable rooftop photovoltaic capacity is 9.9 GWp, representing 30 per cent of final electricity consumption. The Centre for Renewable Energy Sources in Athens states that Crete represents "one of the most favourable and promising Greek regions for the development of renewable energies." An 800-page report for the EU in March 1996 outlined the benefits of renewables in Crete, and importantly that specific renewable technologies can replace new and existing fossil fuel capacity based on: 1. Exploitable potential i.e. solar and wind resource. 2. Renewables are commercially available 3. Renewables contribute to local development 4. Renewables can be easily incorporated into the electrical system 5. Legislative framework is in place (Act 2244/94) The findings presented to the Greek Government and the PPC state that "Energy production from RES (renewable energy services) can lower the cost of electricity production as gas turbines may then operate only during maximum load hours. In addition, introduction of RES will decentralise the electricity production system, will decrease transportation losses, and will increase local development in a sustainable way." Greenpeace's proposal for a fossil free Crete has four main components: energy efficiency, solar, wind and pump storage. Following Greenpeace pressure, the PPC's recent acceptance of a wind and energy efficiency deployment programme in Greece is an early indication of the ability to rapidly alter the status quo over renewables. 1. Energy efficiency Efficient lighting Following a Greenpeace action on the Ministry of Development in April 1996, the PPC has announced a pilot programme to introduce 300,000 CFLs on Crete. Incentives were given to consumers to replace 1-4 light bulbs in their homes. The target was a modest 8MW saved. Although very badly designed, the first phase of the project has achieved the replacement of more than 45,000 light bulbs in the first five months. The PPC is now redesigning the project which will be continued. However, the project has a potential of replacing 1 million light bulbs in homes, thus saving 30 MW a year of peak power. Greenpeace has also started co-operation with the Hotel Association of Crete, and this could save 5-10MW in one year. Demand side management. Greenpeace proposes a promotion of solar thermal applications for hot water. Greece already has Europe’s largest solar thermal industry. The proposal for DSM is now with the Ministry of Development from the Greek Association of Solar Industries (GASI). The idea is to give incentives to consumers to install 25,000 solar systems in the next two years, at a cost of US$26 million, of which consumers will pay 50 per cent. The rest is covered by the GASI and the PPC. If the plan goes ahead, the next step is to install 70,000 systems in total by the year 2000. This project could save 6MW per year of peak power in the next two years, and 20 MW a year in total by 2000. 2. Solar power Solar PV power station. The energy company Amoco/Enron solar has proposed the construction of a 50MW photovoltaic power station in Crete. The total investment cost is $US120 million with support from the Greek Government and the EU, but aims to produce electricity at below 8.5 cents per KWh the price paid to independent producers under the Renewables law. PV for homes and buildings. Greenpeace is promoting solar PV to encourage hundreds of roof top systems for homes and buildings. There is strong interest from various consumers such as hotels, municipal buildings, telecommunications companies, schools and property developers. For commercial applications systems may be subsidised by 55 per cent of the installation cost by the Ministry of Development. Household applications are eligible for tax deductions of 30 per cent of the total cost, but no other direct subsidies are given so far. Greenpeace has launched a "1,000 solar roofs" project with the aim of catalysing the rooftop market in Greece. Solar thermal power station. The German company Flagsol (a subsidiary of Pilkington) has prepared a feasibility study for a 52MW solar thermal power station in southern Crete. They have looked at different proposals ranging from a 100 per cent solar power plant with three hours storage, to a hybrid system of 55 per cent solar, 45 per cent oil. The second option would cost US$180 million, producing 202MWhe/year at a cost of 10.7 cents/KWh. Greenpeace supports the proposal of a solar thermal power plant on the provision that it is 100 per cent solar. Assuming no storage, such a plant could produce 105MWhe/year at a cost of 17.4 cents/KWh. With three hours of storage the plant could produce 137MWhe/year at a cost of 16 cents/KWh. Flagsol has been given EU funds to finish the feasibility studies, and claims construction of a plant could begin in 1997 and finish in 2000. 3. Wind power Following the introduction of the renewables law in 1994, 200MW of wind farms were proposed for Crete. In September 1996, contracts for 20MW of turbines on two Crete wind farms were signed and will be built this year. 50MW has recently been approved for installation in 1997. The costs of 50MW is $US81 million, of which 32.5 million is Greek Government grants. If a storage system is introduced, then more than 400MW of wind could be installed on Crete, which has an excellent aeolian potential (mean wind speed 8.1m/s). 4. Pumped storage This is effectively a form of hydro power where electricity is 'stored' during hours of low demand, via pumping water between reservoirs at differing altitudes. Operation of pumped storage systems during peak hours (where electricity costs can soar to 50GDR/kWh) can replace gas turbines that operate at efficiency lower than 22 per cent. Two sites have already been identified by the PPC:- Kournas (near Chania) - 125 MW capacity, cost 55 billion drachma (US$230 million.) Almiros (near Heraklion) - 175 MW capacity, cost 60 billion drachma (US$250 million.) A 125MW pump storage system could supply 225 GWh/year, 15 per cent of energy demand. The use of pumped storage would eliminate the need for additional fossil fuel capacity. The use of pumped storage is vital to Crete’s electrical system for several reasons. First the need for a minimum safety margin in the region of 20 per cent of net installed capacity capable of meeting future peak loads. Second, pumped storage transforms wind farm’s variable production into uniform production at pre-determined hours, and allows a 100 per cent switch to a range of renewable technologies. Greenpeace fossil free option for Crete (1996-2002) Energy efficiency and DSM 50+MW Solar power 50-100MW Wind 200+MW Pump storage 125-175MW There are other options as well, most notably biomass, but these options outlined above represent practical projects that are either underway in part, or proposed by specific investors and industrial parties. 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