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 Written  3:29 pm  Feb 11, 1991 by greenbase in cdp:mideast.media


 PUNDIT WATCH #3
 Weekly Analysis of News Coverage of the War 
 by Greenpeace USA
 

 "It's deja vu all over again," said one of the Twentieth Century's 
best-loved pundits, Yogi Berra. It might be an appropriate line for the 
re-emergence of many of the same men who lied to us about Vietnam. The role 
of the Military Pundits is, ironically, to help us sort out the truth in the 
nation's first live, Clean Enough for the Whole Family War.  

 In Pundit Watch 3, we've examined ten retired soldiers who have been 
recalled to active punditry for TV analysis. Also, we've prepared an 
inventory of Nightline's guest list since the start of the war, and explored 
the style-versus-substance debate over TV and newspaper coverage.  

 McLAUGHLIN GROUP SUFFERS 20% LOSS OF PREDICTION MAKING CAPACITY: 

 "We should be chastened by now since we haven't been right about anything 
at all," said Jack Germond on 2/8, capturing the essence of the McLaughlin 
Group's allure in a single sentence. "There's clearly massive disinformation 
going on," added Morton Kondracke, without referring to any particular panel 
member. The ground war should commence in "6 weeks," said Morton, "But they 
may go in one week." Fred Barnes averred that air war will continue for five 
or six weeks.  Germond said that ground war was "two weeks away," and Father 
McLaughlin pronounced ground war "necessary," and pinned its advent down to 
"a short period of time" in the future. Eleanor Clift, filling in during Pat 
Buchanan's second consecutive absence, set the date for "two or three more 
weeks." This week's highlight was Kondracke's enlightened reference to 
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria as "Our Arabs." 

 "I do not understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. I am strongly 
in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes .... (Chemical 
weapons represent) the application of Western science to modern warfare. We 
cannot in any circumstance acquiesce in the non-utilization of any weapons 
which are available to procure a speedy termination of the disorder which 
prevails on the frontier." Response of Winston Churchill, then in Britain's 
War Office, 1919, when asked by the RAF for permission to use chemical 
weapons "against recalcitrant Arabs as an experiment." (Alexander Cockburn, 
2/18 The Nation).  

 MR BLACKWELL'S TEN BEST-ARMED LIST: 
 An inventory of the most ubiquitous Uniformed War Pundits.  

 Maj. James Blackwell (USA Ret.) is a former Lockheed exec and current 
fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank 
whose far-rightward slant led to a split with its Georgetown University 
sponsors a few years back. Blackwell was omnipresent during CNN's first days 
of coverage.  He told the Washington Post (1/22), out of deference to Mrs. 
Blackwell, that the first night of Allied bombing was "the second most 
exciting night of my life!" Normally meek on the air and considerably 
younger than his fellow uniformed Pundits, Blackwell lost his cool during an 
exchange with quasi-dissident defense analyst Pierre Sprey. Blackwell called 
Sprey's criticism of the quality of US weapons a "criminal attempt" to 
undermine the morale of US field personnel during a heated exchange on CNN 
(1/28). Anchor Bernard Shaw restored decorum by cutting Sprey off during his 
reply in order to go to a commercial.  

 Anthony Cordesman: His day jobs as Nixon-era DOD official and as staffer 
for former POW and current S & L suspect Senator John McCain are rarely 
mentioned.  According to the Senator's office, Cordesman officially quit 
McCain's staff on January 15. With fellow ABC Consultant William Crowe 
(below), Cordesman has become a regular troupe member of "Nightline." 

 Lt. Gen William Odom (NBC) has gone from the Puzzle Palace to Prime Time. A 
desk veteran of many conflicts, the former Director of the National Security 
Agency was also an NSC staffer for Jimmy Carter. Odom joined Crowe in 
cautioning against rushing into war, perhaps because it's been an awfully 
long time since he's seen one.  

 Col. David Hackworth (USA Ret.): A Newsweek cover described him as 
Vietnam's "Most Decorated Soldier." He may be the Persian Gulf's Most 
Erroneous Journalist. Newsweek 1/21 (the issue hit the streets on 1/14): 
"Taking out Saddam Hussein's Army ... will not be a quick, massive, and 
decisive fight. My own estimate is ... a best case scenario suggests victory 
within 30 days." CNN, 1/16: "This will be known as the six-minute war." CNN 
Larry King, 1/21: The war will end in "eleven days." Newsweek 1/28: "I would 
not be surprised if (Iraqi troops) were to cut and run before the war's 
ground phase begins sometime in February." Newsweek 2/4: "We are not looking 
at a long war here, but you don't knock over a million man army in days.".  

 Gen. George Crist (USMC Ret.), gives CBS's nightly Sermon at the Map. "My 
purpose is to comment on the war and give my best unbiased advice. I am 
retired. So I don't have any vested interests." (Reuters, 1/29) What Crist 
does offer viewers, however, is morbid enthusiasm for the war.  

 General Michael Dugan (USAF Ret.): His pre-war leaks on US tactics won him 
early retirement from the Air Force. Many regard Dugan as the most 
informative member of the Pundits of Foreign Wars, as he was a planner of 
current US strategy. But does that mean that CBS pays him to discuss things 
he can't reveal? Dugan's reported day rate ($1500) will pay him in 67 days 
what the Air Force paid him for a full year as its Chief of Staff.  

 Adm. William Crowe (USN Ret.), Former Joint Chiefs of Staff chair cautioned 
against the war,but is now providing play-by-play for ABC. Like Dugan, the 
recently-retired Crowe undoubtedly has first-hand war information which he 
can't reveal to his audience.  

 Maj. Gen. Bernard Trainor (USMC Ret.) pulled war duty in Korea, Vietnam, 
and the New York Times. Paid consultant for ABC, he recently left the Times 
to become a scholar at Harvard. The Times dispatched him to the Middle East 
to cover the Iran-Iraq war in the mid-80's.  

 Col. Bill Taylor (USA, Ret.): VP for International Security Programs at 
CSIS.  He mysteriously vanished from CNN after the first week of the war, 
and was widely believed to be the first Pundit casualty of the 
three-week-old war. He re-emerged on a lower rung of the Pundit food chain, 
at Washington's WRC-TV.  

 Col. Harry Summers (USA Ret.): Blustery in his NBC appearances, Summers 
actually has a daughter serving in Saudi Arabia, making his real-world links 
to the war closer than any other pundit save for Dugan. Summers was a 
bellicose pre-war columnist whose work regularly appears -- and fits well 
into -- the Commentary section of Rev. Moon's Washington Times, as well as 
the Army Times, Navy Times, and Air Force Times.  

 Gen. Russell Daugherty (USAF Ret.). The former SAC Commander made an early 
appearance on Nightline, but has been little seen since. He's a former chair 
of the Air Force Association, a booster club of ex-airmen. Gen. Dugan is 
also an AFA member.  

 CSIS is winning the on-the-air war, cashing in not only with Blackwell and 
Taylor, but others, like civilian pundit Edward Luttwak, who predicted that 
a ground war would be unnecessary in a 1/19 Washington Post op-ed.  

 OUR PUNDIT ALLIES OVERSEAS: "Not since the Falklands War have so many 
retired generals and admirals and military strategists been in such demand, 
enlisted for special TV broadcasts and called up as armchair strategists for 
the newspapers." William Tuohy, LA Times 2/5, on the state of War Punditry 
on British TV.  


 NIGHTLINE GUEST LIST 

 The progressive media monitoring group FAIR released a study in 1989 
criticizing ABC's Nightline for its one-dimensional guest list. Analyzing 
five years of Nightline guests, FAIR documented a strong bias toward white, 
male, and conservative guests. 92% of Nightline's in-studio guests were 
white, 90% were male, and the top four most frequent guests -- Henry 
Kissinger, Alexander Haig, Elliott Abrams, and Jerry Falwell -- were 
conservatives.  

 How diverse are Nightline's viewpoints since the January 15 deadline? 
Here's an inventory of the show's interview segment guests since then, with 
titles as listed on Nightline's transcripts. Multiple appearances by each 
guest are indicated: 

 Jan. 15: "U.N. Deadline is Midnight Tonight:" Former Joint Chiefs of Staff 
Chair and current ABC News consultant Adm. William Crowe (USN Ret.); Gen.  
Bernard Trainor (USA Ret.) Anthony Cordesman, ABC Consultant and aide to 
Sen.  John McCain (R-AZ); Brookings Institute Middle East analyst Judith 
Kipper.  

 Jan. 16: "War Against Iraq Begins:" Trainor (2); Gen. Russell Daugherty 
(USAF Ret.); Cordesman (2); ABC News correspondents Dean Reynolds in 
Jerusalem and Pierre Salinger in London.  

 Jan. 17: "US Air Attacks continue; Iraqi Missiles Hit Israel:" Israeli 
Deputy Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; All-Time Nightline Appearance 
King Henry Kissinger; ITN Camerman Sebastian Rich in Amman; ABC's 
Conservative Archpundit George Will; Rep. Stephen Solarz (D-NY); CSIS Senior 
Fellow Edward Luttwak.  

 Jan. 18: "Third Day of War; More Iraqi Missiles Land:" Brookings 
Institution military analyst Joshua Epstein; Adm. Crowe (2); ABC Pentagon 
correspondent Bob Zelnick; ABC correspondent Chris Wallace in Tel Aviv; 
Israeli Health Minister Ehud Olmert (introduced by Ted Koppel as "an old 
friend") in Jerusalem. ABC cameraman Fabrice Moussus and freelance 
journalist Michael Kelly from Amman.  War opponents Rev. Joan Brown Campbell 
of the National Council of Churches and Alex Molnar of the Military Families 
Support Network were joined by George Weigel of the conservative, pro-war 
Ethics and Public Policy Center. (The last segment, on war dissent, was cut 
short by a special report on Scud missiles launched at Israel. Before the 
break, Mr. Molnar and Mr. Weigel answered one question; Rev. Campbell, two.) 

 Jan. 21: "Iraqis show POWs on TV; Air War Continues:" Iraqi Ambassador to 
Japan, Rashid al-Riefi; Journalist and former Naval Air Intelligence Officer 
Scott Shuger (who had appeared on Nightline in December as an expert on 
homelessness); former Vietnam POW Cmdr. Everett Alvarez (USN); Jean-Paul 
Failet, Red Cross delegation chief at the UN; Andrew Whitley of Middle East 
Watch, a human rights organization; DePaul U. International Law Professor 
Cherif Bassiouni; CBC Reporter Eric Rankin in Amman.  

 Jan. 22: "First Israeli Scud Fatalities; Oil Fires in Kuwait:" Israel's US 
Ambassador Zalman Shoval; Jordanian Engineer Sharif Said; Jordanian lawyer 
Sharif Ali Zu'bi; Prof. Fred Singer, a frequent critic of Global Warming 
theories; and Carl Sagan, a proponent of such theories; Forrest Sawyer of 
ABC News.  

 Jan. 23: "'Progress,' Says Pentagon; Press Restrictions:" Bob Zelnick (2); 
Cordesman (3); Leonard Specter, Nuclear Proliferation expert at the Carnegie 
Endowment for International Peace; Defense writer Stephen Zaloga; Pentagon 
spokesman Pete Williams; Barry Zorthian, Vietnam War-era spokesman for the 
US Embassy in Saigon; Carter-era State Department spokesman Hodding Carter; 
ABC's Forrest Sawyer (2); journalist David Halberstam; New York Times 
reporter Malcolm Browne.  

 Jan. 24: "Expanding War Goals; Problems in Egypt:" Congressmen Lee Hamilton 
(D-IN) and Newt Ginrich (R-GA); commentator Pat Buchanan; Egyptian 
opposition party member and journalist Mohamed Sid-Ahmed; Los Angeles Times 
reporter David Lamb.  

 Jan. 25: "US Security; Scud Hits; Saddam Spills Oil:" FBI Director William 
Sessions; former Energy Department Security Chief Edward Badolato; Israeli 
Defense Forces Spokesman Brig. Gen. Nachman Shai; journalist Lamis Andoni; 
Jordan's royal science advisor, Abdullah Toukan.  

 Jan. 28: "Iraq's War Machine State; US-USSR Chill; Palestinians Caught in 
Crisis Again:" Georgetown U. Military Analyst Michael Dunn; Defense 
consultant Abraham Wagner; Soviet Foreign Ministry Spokesman Vitaly Churkin; 
Presidential Speechwriter Roger Porter; (The Palestinian report featured no 
interview guests).  

 Jan. 29: "Bush's State of the Union, 1991:" Benjamin Netanyahu (2); ABC 
White House Correspondent Brit Hume; New York Times columnist Leslie Gelb; 
University of Virginia Iranian expert Prof. R.K. Ramazani; former Education 
Secretary and drug czar William Bennett; House Majority Whip William Gray 
(D-PA).  

 Jan. 30: "Who Starts the Ground War?" Forrest Sawyer (3); David Halberstam 
(2); "Armed Forces Journal International" editor Ben Schemmer.  

 Jan. 31: "Khafji; Women in the Gulf; British Journalist Freed:" Forrest 
Sawyer (4); Brig. Gen. Patricia Foote, (USA Ret.); British journalist Bruce 
Cheesman, held captive for over a week by Iraqi troops.  

 Feb. 1: "LA Airline Crash/Gulf War Update:" The Gulf segment of the show 
included Forrest Sawyer (5); ITN reporter Brent Sadler in Baghdad.  

 Feb. 4: "Iran Peace Plan/Why Not Assassinate Saddam Hussein?" Iranian 
Deputy UN Ambassador Javad Zarif; former State Dept. Legal Advisor and 
retired Federal Judge Abraham Sofaer; Harvard Law School Professor Abram 
Chayes; Rev. Forrest Church, the son of the late CIA critic Senator Frank 
Church.  

 Feb. 5: "A Family Divided Over War:" This Oprah-esque show featured AWOL 
Reservist Stephanie Atkinson and her pro-war father, Steve.  

 Feb. 6: "Doing Business with Saddam:" Former Commerce Undersecretary Paul 
Freedenberg; former Defense Undersecretary Stephen Bryen.  

 Feb. 7: "Four Iraqis who Walked out of the Minefields:" Isabel Ellson, 
reporter for the British daily The Independent; Edward Barnes, Life Magazine 
Weekly.  

 Feb. 8: "Domestic Terrorism:" US Counterterrorism Coordinator Ambassador 
Morris Busby; Clinical Psychologist James Turner.  


 WAR AS PRIME-TIME ENTERTAINMENT: Has TV made Newspapers Irrelevant?  

 As viewers slowly began to realize that TV's mile-wide coverage of the war 
was only inches deep, daily newspapers have garnered some after-the-fact 
prestige.  But TV cornered the market on early war coverage in a way which 
played to, if not created, America's early-war euphoria. Since the 1960 
Nixon-Kennedy debate, TV's influence over public opinion has been 
preeminent, and its dominance is still growing. Recent readership surveys 
offer more troubling news for print journalism: The number of young adults 
and minorities who read and rely on newspapers is declining steadily. The 
inevitable question is a troubling one for American journalism: Has TV's 
see-it-now technical prowess moved newspapers one step closer to being 
irrelevant to public opinion?  

 Time Correspondent Richard Zoglin (2/11) reported a telling statement from 
LA Times reporter Kim Murphy in Saudi Arabia: "A friend took a picture of 
me..g notes in front of a TV set. That's what being a war correspondent has 
come to." 

 A poll by Murphy's employer, Times-Mirror, reported "By a margin of 75% to 
7%, the public thinks television reporters are digging harder to get the 
news than newspaper reporters." 73% said that "newspaper accounts pretty 
much cover the same ground (as TV), while 23% say they have been given a 
better understanding of what they have seen on TV." 

 Journalists on both sides of the print/broadcast fence downplay the 
disparity in influence between the two media. "I don't think it's changed 
the equation, but it has emphasized areas where the print press is not 
competitive with TV," said former Atlanta Journal-Constitution Editor Bill 
Kovach.  

 But many consider TV's dominance to be a victory of style over substance.  
"I've never seen so much news and so little information in my life," said 
Danny Schecter, producer of "South Africa Now!" and a former producer at 
ABC's "20/20." "The quote that stays with me is the person who told me his 
mind is being carpet bombed by CNN. As a TV professional I never thought I 
could be shocked and amazed by anything. I am shocked and amazed by the 
degree to which the networks can be a transmission belt for Pentagon 
pronouncements." 

 "CNN has become the 'newspaper of record,'" said Michael Schiffer of New 
York University's Center for War, Peace, and the News Media, referring to 
the New York Times's traditional title. Removed from the "deadline every 
minute" pressure of broadcast and wire journalism, dailies have eluded much 
of TV's tendency to stereotype war opponents. Bonnie Garvin of the National 
Campaign for Peace in the Middle East, told of fielding a call from an NBC 
Today Show staffer requesting an interview with the show's notion of a 
cooked-to-order war opponent. Garvin recounted the Today staffer's request: 
"'We're tired of the experts. We'd like a working person like a stockbroker. 
Someone who might have voted for George Bush, but is now against the war.'" 
A three-person panel did appear on the 2/7 Today show, with a war-supporting 
stockbroker, a lukewarm war-opposing schoolteacher, and an undecided 
white-collar professional. On the other TV extreme was ABC, which turned in 
a stereotype-free, four-and-a-half minute piece on war opponents on its 2/7 
evening broadcast.  

 Less subsceptible to the video spoon-feeding of "Nintendo War" images, 
print journalists have also been more tenacious in challenging the company 
line. The Washington Post's Al Kamen waded through the controversy over the 
bombing of a building which the Iraqis claim was an infant formula plant, 
and which the Allies claim was a biological weapons facility (2/8). While 
Kamen gave some weight to both sides of the story, he uncovered strong 
third-party evidence that the Iraqis may have the more truthful version. 
Pro-war media critics have used the controversy to lob shells at CNN's Peter 
Arnett, who originated the story on an Iraqi guided and censored trip to the 
building's wreckage. Senator Allan Simpson (R-WY) labelled Arnett an "Iraqi 
sympathizer" on 2/7. An editorial in the 2/8 Washington Post slammed 
Simpson, contrasting his "sleazy" attack on Arnett with Simpson's own 
friendly visit to Saddam as part of a Senate delegation last year.  

 Dailies have also far surpassed TV in their acknowledgment that life goes 
on in the rest of the world. Network news, with its rigid 22-minute format 
and necessarily limited attention span, has crowded its worldview into a few 
minutes at the tail end of the nightly news. CNN, with its all-day format, 
and NBC, which has moved to an hour-long weeknight newscast, have provided 
occasional exceptions.  

 Zoglin's Time article provided some encouraging news for dailies in their 
battle to hold their ground against TV's pervasiveness. The story reported 
sales increases of ten to twenty thousand papers a day at the Washington 
Post and Philadelphia Inquirer. Also, a New York Times spokesperson told PW 
that the paper peaked at 82,000 extra sales on 1/18, but has since returned 
to pre-war sales levels.  

 Kovach, who is now Curator of Harvard's Nieman Foundation, speculated that 
the war may have a positive impact on newspapers' hard news coverage: "The 
trend has been away from hard news in recent years. There's a feeling that 
hard news is not a sellable commodity. (News from the war) may have caused 
some news owners to stop and think about that trend. The war makes clear 
(newspapers') importance." 

 THEOLOGICAL QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "Israel is being very Christian. It's 
turning the other cheek." Jewish biblical scholar Eugene Borowitz, 2/4 USA 
TODAY 

 "The political decision has been made to keep cameras out of Dover Air 
Force Base, .... where the bodies of US service personnel ... are returned. 
This political decision was made to keep the war popular, keep the people 
happy, and keep the decision to make war looking good. The press should have 
screamed their heads off about this act of political censorship. They 
mumbled, then rolled over." Former Congressman Otis Pike, Minneapolis Star 
Tribune, 1/27.  

 Reports surfaced this week raising hope that Bob Simon and three CBS News 
colleagues were alive, and could soon be released by their suspected Iraqi 
captors. Before their disappearance nearly three weeks ago, Simon took part 
in this dialogue during a Nightline set-up piece (1/23): S/Sgt Christopher 
Grey, USMC Public Affairs Officer: "If the media .... aren't moving with us, 
....  they may get lost somewhere out in the desert. Bob Simon: I don't buy 
that. We have talked to many company and battalion commanders who have told 
us that they have been ordered not to accept journalists who show up on 
their own." 

 BUT IS SHE ELIGIBLE FOR MEDALS? "For the first time in my life, I am taking 
part in a war. Thanks to CNN's fantastic television coverage, I feel really 
involved." Letter to 2/11 Time Magazine from Eva Svensson, Goteborg, Sweden 

 BIG LEAGUE SPIN CONTROL: Persian Gulf "Talking points are faxed (by the 
White House) almost every day to party leaders, business executives and 
religious figures friendly to the Administration. 'Don't forget to mention 
these points,' one memo instructed, 'whether it is at a cocktail party or a 
board meeting.'" (Newsweek, 2/11) 

 Psychologists, both amateur and amateurish, have endeavored to probe Saddam 
Hussein's mind since the war began. The 1/22 CBS "48 Hours" program cited a 
researcher who attributed the Persian Gulf war to Saddam's fate at the hands 
of his brutal father. But the most inventive approach of all came from an 
examination not of Saddam's mind, but of his eyelids: 

 "Saddam Hussein clearly intended to project the image of a strong and 
unflappable leader during his televised interview on CNN last week. But his 
eyes may have betrayed him by sending an altogether different message. Close 
watchers of the interview could not help noticing that the Iraqi leader was 
blinking at a frantic pace (as often as 40 times a minute, vs. 20 to 25 
during a TV interview last June.) John Molloy, a consultant who trains 
salespeople to handle stress, says Saddam's fluttering eyelids may be a sign 
of mental breakdown." (Time Magazine, 2/11).  

 A team of Pundit Watch researchers took this as a challenge to put the 
sanity of many American leaders to the eyelid test.  

 Random observations revealed the following results: 


 SUBJECT        VENUE         BLINKS PER            COMMENTS 
                              MINUTE (bpm) 

 George Bush    2/6 Speech,        34.4   5 1/2 Blinks Calmer 
                New York                         than Saddam 

 George Bush    10/88 debate,      38.2    Dukakis pushes VP 1.8 
                Wake Forest                blinks away from 
                Univ., NC                  breakdown level 

 Mike Dukakis   10/88 debate       71.3    What's he hiding 
                                           beneath that calm 
                                           exterior?  

 Conservative    Christian        124.0 (!)  The next Freddy 
 Activist/former Broadcasting                Krueger?  
 Reagan official Network, 2/6 
 Gary Bauer 

 Televangelist   CBN, 2/6          96.3     Contributions down 
 D. James Kennedy                           due to War?  

 Conservative    CBN, 2/6           7.3     Eyelids Glued Open 
 Activist Paul 
 Weyrich 

 Jimmy Carter   Press conference   35.0     Showed impacts of the 
                6/79                        era's National Malaise 

 Dan Quayle     Speech, 2/6        20.4     One heartbeat and 
                                            many blinks away 

 Lloyd Bentsen  Senate hearing,    44.9     He's no Dan Quayle 
                C-SPAN, 2/6 

 Peter Bahouth  Speech at anti-    20.0     Very Normal; Has 
 Exec. Dir. of  war rally, 1/26             Hiring and firing 
 Greenpeace                                 Power over PW staff 


 The San Francisco Examiner has imparted its own version of the American Way 
to columnist Warren Hinckle. The paper killed a 1/17 column by Hinckle which 
criticized the war. According to the SF Bay Guardian, which published the 
banned column in its 1/30 edition, the Examiner "suggested that Hinckle take 
a three-month unpaid leave." Instead, Hinckle and Bob Callahan will go to 
press with "War News," a weekly that will provide an outlet for stifled 
anti-war voices. Their phone is 415-441-1930.  

 DataTimes is an online database vendor holding the largest collection of 
U.S.  daily newspapers. In its Winter Customer Newsletter, DataTimes ran an 
inventory of newspaper mentions of George Bush in association with the major 
topics of 1990: 


         Topic                       Number of articles 
 ---------------------------------------------------- 
 George Bush and economy            43,538 
 George Bush and budget             27,091 
 George Bush and Iraq               26,800 
 George Bush and drugs              14,733 
 George Bush and education          11,970 
 George Bush and environment         8,142 
 George Bush and broccoli              990 


 PUNDIT WATCH 3 was written by Andrew Davis and Peter Dykstra 

 NEXT WEEK: Civilian Pundits; War and Advertising.  


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